UNSPSC: 12141714
Fermium (Fm) is a synthetic, radioactive element with no commercial applications or established market; its global TAM is effectively $0. The material is produced in picogram-to-nanogram quantities exclusively for fundamental scientific research. Consequently, the 3-year CAGR is 0%. The single most critical factor governing this commodity is not a market threat, but a supply chokepoint: the operational status of the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), the world's primary production facility.
There is no commercial market for Fermium. It is not sold, and therefore has a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $0. Production is limited to a handful of government-funded research institutions globally, with output measured in nanograms and dedicated entirely to basic scientific study. Projections for commercial growth are non-existent. The concept of "geographic markets" translates to the physical locations of the few reactors capable of its synthesis, with the United States being the principal location.
| Year (Est.) | Global TAM (USD) | CAGR (5-Yr) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 2026 | $0 | 0% |
| 2029 | $0 | 0% |
The three largest "markets" by production capability are: 1. United States (dominant) 2. Russia 3. Switzerland/Germany (via research consortia)
The "competitive" landscape consists of government-funded research institutions, not commercial enterprises. Barriers to entry are effectively absolute, requiring a high-flux nuclear reactor, licensed hot-cell processing facilities, and a national-level nuclear research program.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders (Producers) * Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA: World's primary producer via its High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC). * Research Institute of Atomic Reactors (RIAR), Russia: Possesses high-flux reactors (e.g., SM-3) with theoretical capability for transplutonium element production. * Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland: A key European center for heavy element research, often in collaboration with other labs for experiments.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players (Research Consortia) * GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research, Germany: Focuses on synthesizing superheavy elements, often in collaboration with producers like ORNL. * RIKEN, Japan: A leading research institute in nuclear physics, contributing to the study of heavy element properties.
Fermium is not commercially priced. Any "price" is an internal, cost-recovery charge within the research ecosystem, representing the cost of production. This cost is borne by government grants or institutional research budgets.
The cost build-up is based on: (1) allocated time on a high-flux reactor, (2) cost of precursor target materials (e.g., Curium), (3) complex, multi-stage chemical separation and purification in specialized hot cells, and (4) radioactive waste handling and disposal. There is no spot market, and no commercial price indices exist.
The most volatile cost elements are not market-driven but operational: 1. Reactor Uptime/Availability: Unplanned shutdowns at a facility like HFIR have an infinite cost impact, as production ceases entirely. 2. Precursor Isotope Availability: The cost and production schedule of required target materials, like Cf-252 (which decays into other useful isotopes), are highly constrained. 3. Energy Costs: A high-flux reactor is extremely energy-intensive; fluctuations in regional electricity prices can impact the facility's overall operational budget, though this is not passed on as a "price" to a "customer."
The landscape consists of research institutions. "Market Share" is an estimate based on production capability for research quantities.
| Institution / "Supplier" | Region | Est. "Market Share" | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) | USA | >90% | N/A (Gov't Funded) | High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR); world's only source of significant quantities |
| Research Institute of Atomic Reactors (RIAR) | Russia | <5% | N/A (State Owned) | SM-3 Reactor; transuranic element production capability |
| Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) | Switzerland | <1% | N/A (Gov't Funded) | Heavy element chemistry research; user of materials |
| GSI Helmholtz Centre | Germany | <1% | N/A (Gov't Funded) | Superheavy element synthesis; user of materials |
| Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) | USA | <1% | N/A (Gov't Funded) | Pioneering heavy element discovery and analysis |
North Carolina has zero commercial demand and zero production capacity for Fermium. The state's relevance is purely academic and geographic. Its proximity to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, positions its research universities (e.g., Duke University, North Carolina State University) as potential collaborators on fundamental nuclear physics research involving Fermium. Any "demand" would manifest as a research proposal or partnership with ORNL, not a procurement request. The state's favorable business climate, tax structure, and labor market are irrelevant to this specific commodity.
This commodity's risk profile is unique and tied to its non-commercial, research-only nature.
| Risk Category | Grade | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | High | Dependent almost entirely on a single facility (ORNL's HFIR). An unplanned outage halts global production. |
| Price Volatility | Low | No market price exists. "Cost" is a function of internal research budgets, which are relatively stable. |
| ESG Scrutiny | High | Involves nuclear reactors, high-level radioactive materials, and waste disposal, all under intense scrutiny. |
| Geopolitical Risk | Medium | Production is concentrated in the US and Russia. Access for international researchers can be impacted by policy. |
| Technology Obsolescence | Low | Production method is fundamental nuclear physics. The risk is aging facilities, not obsolete technology. |
Re-categorize and Re-align Process. Immediately re-classify UNSPSC 12141714 (Fermium) as a "Non-Procurable Research Material." Procurement's role should be to facilitate, not source. Establish a formal protocol for R&D teams to engage national laboratories like ORNL via Research Partnership Agreements, completely outside of standard procurement channels and systems. This aligns internal processes with the reality of the "market."
Mandate Long-Range Research Planning. For any internal project identifying a need for Fermium, mandate a minimum 24-month lead time in the project charter. This time must be allocated for the scientific team to build relationships, submit research proposals, and secure experimental time on a reactor schedule. The primary risk mitigation is deep, early collaboration with the producing institution, not supplier diversification.