Market Analysis – 12141752 – Bohrium Bh

Market Analysis Brief: Bohrium (Bh)

UNSPSC 12141752

Executive Summary

The global commercial market for Bohrium (Bh) is non-existent, with a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $0. As a synthetic, highly radioactive element with a half-life measured in seconds, Bohrium is produced only in atom-scale quantities for fundamental scientific research. Consequently, there is no commercial production, supply chain, or pricing mechanism. The primary strategic imperative is not opportunity capture but the de-listing of this and similar non-commercial elements from procurement systems to prevent misallocation of corporate resources.

Market Size & Growth

The commercial market for Bohrium is $0. The element is not traded and has no industrial, manufacturing, or value-added applications. Production is restricted to a handful of government-funded particle accelerator facilities globally, created on an atom-by-atom basis for research purposes only. Projections for commercialisation are non-existent; therefore, the 5-year CAGR is 0%.

The "markets" are not geographic regions of consumption but locations of synthesis capability: 1. Darmstadt, Germany (GSI Helmholtz Centre for Heavy Ion Research) 2. Dubna, Russia (Joint Institute for Nuclear Research - JINR) 3. Berkeley, CA, USA (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory - LBNL)

Key Drivers & Constraints

1. Demand Driver: Fundamental Research. The sole driver for Bohrium production is scientific curiosity regarding the chemical and physical properties of superheavy elements, testing the limits of the periodic table.
2. Constraint: Extreme Instability. The most stable known isotope, ²⁷⁰Bh, has a half-life of approximately 61 seconds. This makes accumulation, storage, transport, and application physically impossible.
3. Constraint: Prohibitive Production. Synthesis requires a particle accelerator to bombard a target like Bismuth-209 with ions of Chromium-54. The process is extraordinarily expensive, energy-intensive, and yields only a few atoms per multi-week experiment.
4. Constraint: Radioactivity & Safety. As a superheavy element, Bohrium is intensely radioactive, requiring specialised containment and handling protocols far beyond any standard industrial chemical safety programme.
5. Regulatory: Non-existent Commercial Framework. No regulatory body (e.g., REACH, TSCA) has a framework for Bohrium as a commercial substance, as it has never been produced in quantities requiring such oversight.

Competitive Landscape

The concept of a commercial competitive landscape does not apply. The "producers" are state-funded research consortia, not commercial enterprises. They collaborate more often than they compete.

• Tier 1 "Leaders" (Research Institutions)

  • GSI Helmholtz Centre (Germany): The original discoverers of Bohrium, possessing world-class facilities for superheavy element synthesis and chemical characterisation.
  • Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (JINR, Russia): A leading global facility in the synthesis of transactinide elements with a long history of key discoveries.
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL, USA): A key US Department of Energy lab with a history of element discovery and advanced capabilities in nuclear science.

• Emerging/Niche Players

  • Riken (Japan): A major research institute in Japan with a growing capability in superheavy element research, demonstrated by the discovery of Nihonium (Nh, 113).

Barriers to Entry are, for all practical purposes, infinite. They include the est. >$1B capital cost for a suitable particle accelerator, access to world-leading nuclear physics expertise, and national-level operating budgets.

Pricing Mechanics

There is no commercial price for Bohrium. It has never been bought or sold.

The "cost of production" is a theoretical calculation based on the operational expense of a particle accelerator experiment. This includes massive electricity consumption, liquid helium for cooling superconducting magnets, labour costs for PhD-level physicists and technicians, and the cost of the target materials. A single experiment to produce a few atoms of a superheavy element can have an all-in cost of est. $5M - $10M. This cost is borne by national science budgets and cannot be amortised into a per-gram or per-atom price for commercial sale.

The three most significant (but theoretical) cost inputs would be: 1. Accelerator Beam Time: The primary cost driver, representing electricity, maintenance, and personnel. Volatility is linked to institutional budgets and energy prices. 2. Target Material (e.g., ²⁰⁹Bi): While Bismuth is not exceptionally expensive, creating a pure, stable target suitable for bombardment is a high-cost, custom process. 3. Ion Source Material (e.g., ⁵⁴Cr): Requires isotopically enriched material, which is significantly more expensive than the naturally occurring element.

Recent Trends & Innovation

• Gas-Phase Chemistry Experiments (Ongoing): Research continues on methods to perform chemical experiments on single atoms of Bohrium. By reacting a Bh atom with oxygen, scientists study its properties to confirm if it behaves like its lighter homologue, Rhenium, as predicted by the periodic table. [Source - various nuclear chemistry journals, 2022-2024]
• Isotope Production Refinement (December 2022): Researchers at GSI have worked on optimising reaction pathways to increase the production cross-section for Bohrium isotopes, potentially increasing the yield from a few atoms per week to a few atoms per day in future experiments.
• Theoretical Modelling Advances (2023): Relativistic quantum chemistry calculations have become more powerful, allowing for more accurate predictions of Bohrium's properties (e.g., oxidation states, bond energies) before they are experimentally confirmed. This guides future, costly experiments.

Supplier Landscape

No commercial suppliers exist. The following table lists the research institutions capable of its synthesis.

Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

North Carolina has a sophisticated research infrastructure, including the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL), a Department of Energy Center of Excellence. However, there is zero commercial demand for Bohrium within the state's industrial base (e.g., biotech, manufacturing, chemicals). Furthermore, there is no local capacity for synthesizing superheavy elements like Bohrium; this capability is restricted to a few national laboratories globally. State tax, labour, and regulatory frameworks are irrelevant to this commodity, as it will never be produced, transported, or used commercially in North Carolina.

Risk Outlook

This risk assessment is framed from the perspective of attempting to source a non-existent commercial product.

Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

1. Immediately de-list UNSPSC 12141752 (Bohrium) and its associated data from all procurement software, category plans, and spend analytics platforms. This is a non-commercial, non-procurable research element. This action will eliminate resource waste on sourcing an unobtainable material and improve data integrity.

2. Initiate a data governance audit of the "Elements and gases" family (UNSPSC 12140000) to identify and flag other synthetic, superheavy elements (e.g., Hassium, Meitnerium). This proactive clean-up will focus category management efforts on commercially viable chemicals and prevent similar analytical exercises in the future.