The global kerosene market, currently estimated at $75.2 billion, is projected to experience modest growth driven primarily by the recovering and expanding commercial aviation sector. The market is forecast to grow at a 3.1% CAGR over the next three years, reaching approximately $82.4 billion by 2027. The single most significant strategic consideration is the accelerating transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which presents both a long-term obsolescence threat to traditional kerosene and a near-term opportunity for forward-thinking procurement to gain a competitive advantage through early adoption and supply partnerships.
The global market for kerosene is mature, with its growth trajectory intrinsically linked to the aviation and industrial sectors. The primary demand driver is its use as jet fuel (Jet A-1). While demand for domestic heating and lighting is declining in developed nations, it remains a staple in parts of the developing world. The largest geographic markets are 1) Asia-Pacific, 2) North America, and 3) Europe, collectively accounting for over 75% of global consumption.
| Year | Global TAM (est. USD) | CAGR (YoY, est.) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $75.2 Billion | - |
| 2025 | $77.5 Billion | +3.1% |
| 2026 | $79.9 Billion | +3.1% |
Barriers to entry are extremely high due to immense capital intensity (refinery construction costs billions), complex integrated logistics, extensive regulatory requirements, and the established scale of incumbent players.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * ExxonMobil: Unmatched global scale in upstream and downstream operations, providing high supply reliability. * Shell plc: A leader in global marketing and distribution, with a significant and growing investment in low-carbon fuels, including SAF. * Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.): Dominant player in the Asia-Pacific market with massive state-backed refining capacity and regional logistical control. * Chevron Corporation: Strong presence in the Americas and Asia with a focus on operational efficiency and advanced refining technology.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Neste: A Finnish company that has pivoted to become the world's largest producer of renewable diesel and SAF. * Valero Energy: A large independent refiner known for its operational flexibility and significant presence in the US Gulf Coast refining hub. * Gevo, Inc.: A US-based company focused on converting renewable energy into energy-dense liquid hydrocarbons, including SAF. * World Energy: A pioneer in the commercial-scale production of SAF, operating one of the world's first renewable jet fuel refineries.
Kerosene pricing is a build-up model based on a global commodity market. The foundation is the price of a barrel of crude oil. From there, the "crack spread" is added, which represents the refining margin and is highly sensitive to refinery utilization rates, seasonal demand (e.g., winter heating vs. summer driving), and inventory levels. This refined "spot price" at a major hub (e.g., US Gulf Coast, Rotterdam) forms the basis.
Final delivered cost to a facility includes transportation (pipeline, vessel, or truck), terminal storage fees, federal and state taxes, and a supplier margin. The most volatile components are the raw input and the refining spread, which can fluctuate daily. Procurement should focus negotiations on the elements downstream of the spot price, such as logistics adders and payment terms, as the base commodity price is largely non-negotiable.
Most Volatile Cost Elements (Last 12 Months): 1. Crude Oil (Brent): ~18% fluctuation range. 2. Jet Fuel Crack Spread (USGC): ~35% fluctuation range. 3. Ocean Freight/Tanker Rates: ~25% increase on key routes due to geopolitical disruptions.
| Supplier | Region(s) | Est. Market Share | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | Global | 8-10% | NYSE:XOM | Global integrated supply chain; high-volume reliability. |
| Shell plc | Global | 7-9% | LON:SHEL | Strong marketing/distribution; leader in SAF development. |
| BP | Global | 6-8% | NYSE:BP | Major aviation fuel card (Air BP); significant European presence. |
| Sinopec | Asia-Pacific | 5-7% | NYSE:SNP | Dominant refining and logistics network in Asia. |
| Chevron | Global | 5-7% | NYSE:CVX | Technologically advanced refining; strong Americas presence. |
| Valero Energy | Americas, Europe | 4-6% | NYSE:VLO | Largest independent refiner; highly efficient operations. |
| Neste | Global | <1% (Kerosene), >50% (SAF) | HEL:NESTE | World's leading producer of Sustainable Aviation Fuel. |
Demand in North Carolina is overwhelmingly driven by aviation fuel consumption at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), a top-10 global airport by traffic and a major hub for American Airlines, and Raleigh-Durham (RDU). Residual demand for K-1 kerosene for home heating exists in rural and off-grid areas but is in structural decline.
The state has zero local refining capacity. It is almost entirely dependent on supply from the Colonial and Plantation Pipelines, which originate in the US Gulf Coast. This creates a significant supply chain vulnerability to pipeline disruptions, as demonstrated by the 2021 Colonial Pipeline shutdown. The state's tax and regulatory environment is stable, but any disruption to this pipeline artery has immediate and severe impacts on price and availability.
| Risk Category | Grade | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | Medium | High dependency on pipeline infrastructure (e.g., Colonial); hurricane risk to Gulf Coast refineries. |
| Price Volatility | High | Direct, immediate correlation to volatile crude oil prices and geopolitical events. |
| ESG Scrutiny | High | As a fossil fuel, kerosene faces intense pressure from investors, regulators, and customers to be replaced by cleaner alternatives. |
| Geopolitical Risk | High | Production and shipping lanes are exposed to conflict in the Middle East and other global hotspots. |
| Technology Obsolescence | Medium | SAF is a direct replacement, but the transition will take decades. Electrification/hydrogen are longer-term threats. |
Mitigate Price Volatility. Implement a programmatic hedging strategy for 60-70% of projected 12-month volume using fixed-price contracts and cost-plus models tied to a crude oil index. This insulates budgets from market shocks while allowing participation in price declines. Focus negotiations on fixed logistics adders and refining margins to create cost certainty on the controllable portion of the price stack, which can account for 15-25% of the total cost.
De-Risk Supply & Address ESG. Qualify at least one dedicated SAF supplier (e.g., Neste, World Energy) and execute a pilot program for a 5% blend at a key airport location within 12 months. This action directly addresses mounting ESG pressure, prepares the organization for future mandates, and provides critical operational experience with alternative fuels. It also creates negotiating leverage with incumbent fossil fuel suppliers by demonstrating a viable alternative.