Market Analysis – 26131515 – Photovoltaic mounting system

Executive Summary

The global photovoltaic (PV) mounting system market is projected to reach $15.8 billion in 2024, driven by accelerating solar deployments worldwide. The market is forecast to grow at a 7.8% CAGR over the next five years, fueled by aggressive decarbonization targets and supportive government policies like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The primary threat facing procurement is extreme price volatility, directly tied to fluctuating raw material costs for steel and aluminum, which can comprise over 60% of the total product cost. The key opportunity lies in leveraging regionalized supply chains and advanced tracker technology to optimize project economics and mitigate geopolitical risks.

Market Size & Growth

The global Total Addressable Market (TAM) for PV mounting systems is substantial and expanding in lockstep with solar energy adoption. Growth is primarily concentrated in the utility-scale segment, where solar trackers are gaining market share over fixed-tilt systems due to their ability to increase energy yield by up to 25%. The three largest geographic markets are 1. China, 2. United States, and 3. Germany, collectively accounting for over half of global demand.

[Source - est. based on Grand View Research & internal analysis, Jan 2024]

Key Drivers & Constraints

1. Demand Driver (Policy): Global government incentives, particularly the U.S. IRA's 10% domestic content tax credit adder, are a powerful driver. This is reshaping supply chains by encouraging onshore manufacturing of mounting system components like torque tubes and rails.
2. Demand Driver (Technology): The increasing adoption of large-format (>550W) and bifacial solar modules necessitates more robust and specialized mounting systems. This trend strongly favors single-axis trackers, which maximize bifacial gain and energy yield, over traditional fixed-tilt structures.
3. Cost Constraint (Raw Materials): Price volatility of core inputs—primarily steel and aluminum—is the single largest constraint. Steel prices, for example, have seen swings of +/- 40% over 24-month periods, directly impacting project budgets and supplier margins.
4. Supply Constraint (Logistics & Tariffs): Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism (e.g., Section 232/301 tariffs in the U.S.) create supply chain uncertainty and cost adders. Port congestion and high freight costs, while moderating from 2022 peaks, remain a persistent risk.
5. Technical Constraint (Land Use): For ground-mount systems, land availability and topography are significant constraints. Tracker systems with advanced backtracking software and higher tolerances for uneven terrain are becoming critical for optimizing difficult sites.

Competitive Landscape

Barriers to entry are Medium-to-High, characterized by the need for significant manufacturing capital, extensive supply chain relationships, and a proven track record ("bankability") required for project financing. Intellectual property is a key differentiator in tracker control systems and mechanical design.

⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * Nextracker (NXT): Global market leader in solar trackers, known for its independent row architecture and advanced TrueCapture software for yield optimization. * Array Technologies (ARRY): A top-tier tracker supplier with a centralized drivetrain architecture that reduces motor count per megawatt, offering a different approach to O&M. * Esdec Solar Group (Private): Dominant in the residential and commercial rooftop space through its portfolio of brands, including IronRidge and QuickMount PV in the U.S. * Schletter Group (Private): German-engineered provider with a strong global presence in both fixed-tilt ground-mount and rooftop systems, known for high-quality and durability.

⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * FTC Solar (FTCI): Known for its "Voyager" tracker, which features a 2-in-portrait (2P) design and rapid, low-labor installation methods. * OMCO Solar: U.S.-based manufacturer leveraging its roll-forming expertise to offer domestically produced fixed-tilt and tracker components. * Terrasmart: Provides integrated solutions including ground screws, fixed-tilt racking, and tracker systems, focusing on difficult terrain projects.

Pricing Mechanics

The price of a PV mounting system is primarily a build-up from raw material costs, manufacturing/fabrication, logistics, and supplier margin. For utility-scale trackers, raw materials (steel, aluminum, zinc for coating) can account for 50-65% of the total cost. Fabrication, which includes processes like roll-forming, stamping, and welding, represents another 15-20%. The remaining cost is allocated to logistics (ocean/inland freight), hardware (nuts and bolts), electronics (for trackers), engineering services, and supplier G&A/profit.

Pricing is typically quoted in dollars per watt ($/W), ranging from $0.05/W for simple fixed-tilt systems to over $0.12/W for advanced tracker systems. The most volatile cost elements are the underlying metal commodities and freight. Suppliers often use commodity price escalators in contracts for long-lead-time projects to mitigate their risk.

Most Volatile Cost Elements (24-Month Peak Change): 1. Hot-Rolled Coil Steel: est. +45% 2. Aluminum (LME): est. +35% 3. Ocean Freight (Asia-US): est. +200% (though has since fallen significantly from peak)

Recent Trends & Innovation

• Tracker Architecture Shift (Q3 2023): Major tracker suppliers are increasingly offering 2-in-portrait (2P) configurations alongside traditional 1-in-portrait (1P) systems. This is a direct response to the market dominance of larger M10 and G12 format modules, as 2P designs can optimize land use and reduce foundation counts.
• Domestic Content Onshoring (Q1 2024): In response to the IRA, multiple suppliers, including Nextracker and OMCO Solar, have announced new or expanded U.S. manufacturing facilities for key steel components like torque tubes. This trend aims to de-risk supply chains and help projects qualify for federal tax adders.
• Advanced Software Controls (Ongoing): Leading tracker firms are competing on software that mitigates weather-related risks. Features include rapid stowing to protect against hail and high winds, as well as backtracking algorithms that minimize row-to-row shading, boosting energy production on non-flat sites.

Supplier Landscape

[Market share source: Wood Mackenzie, Global solar PV tracker market shares 2023]

Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

North Carolina remains a top-5 U.S. market for solar deployment, driven by Duke Energy's Carbon Plan and a robust pipeline of utility-scale projects. Demand for mounting systems, particularly single-axis trackers, is projected to remain strong for the next 3-5 years. The state's strategic location in the Southeast provides a logistical advantage for serving the broader region. While no Tier 1 tracker suppliers are headquartered in NC, several have established or are exploring manufacturing facilities in the Southeast to reduce freight costs and leverage IRA benefits. The state's favorable labor market and manufacturing infrastructure make it a prime candidate for future supply chain investments in this commodity.

Risk Outlook

Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

1. Qualify a Domestic Supplier & Implement a 70/30 Split. To mitigate geopolitical risk and capture IRA tax credits, qualify a North American-based manufacturer (e.g., OMCO Solar, Terrasmart) as a secondary source. Target a 70/30 volume allocation between your primary global supplier and this domestic alternative. This dual-source strategy provides supply assurance and creates competitive tension, while securing access to domestic content for critical projects.

2. Mandate Indexed Pricing with a Collar. For all new agreements, move away from fixed-price quotes. Instead, implement a pricing structure indexed to a benchmark for hot-rolled coil steel (e.g., CRU Index) and aluminum (LME). Negotiate a +/- 10% collar on the baseline price to share risk and reward between parties. This creates transparency, reduces supplier risk-padding in bids, and ensures market-reflective pricing.