The global market for incandescent fixtures is in terminal decline, driven by regulatory phase-outs and the technical superiority of LED alternatives. The current market is a residual, legacy segment estimated at ~$1.1B and is projected to contract sharply with a 3-year CAGR of est. -18%. The primary threat is technology obsolescence, which is now codified by widespread government bans on inefficient lighting. The key strategic opportunity lies not in sourcing this commodity, but in managing a swift, cost-effective transition to LED fixtures to capture significant energy savings and align with corporate ESG objectives.
The global market for incandescent fixtures is a rapidly shrinking sub-segment of the overall lighting fixture industry. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) is sustained only by replacement demand in older building stock and niche decorative applications. Growth is negative and expected to accelerate as regulatory bans become fully enforced and retrofit programs gain traction. The largest remaining markets are in developing regions with less stringent energy codes and a larger installed base, alongside a small, high-end decorative niche in developed economies.
| Year | Global TAM (est. USD) | 5-Yr CAGR (est.) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1.1 Billion | -16.5% |
| 2026 | $0.78 Billion | -16.5% |
| 2029 | $0.45 Billion | -16.5% |
Largest Geographic Markets (by residual demand): 1. Asia-Pacific (excluding developed nations) 2. Latin America 3. North America (primarily replacement/niche decorative)
The competitive environment is characterized by major players exiting or managing the decline of legacy portfolios, while niche specialists cater to residual demand.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * Signify (Philips Lighting): Differentiator: Global distribution network and brand equity, now focused on managing the transition of its legacy customer base to its vast LED and connected-lighting portfolio. * Acuity Brands: Differentiator: Strong relationships in the North American specification market, offering a path for customers to migrate from legacy products to its Lithonia Lighting and Gotham LED solutions. * Hubbell Incorporated: Differentiator: Deep penetration in commercial and industrial channels, providing robust legacy support while prioritizing its portfolio shift to high-performance LED and controls.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Restoration Hardware (RH): Focuses on high-end, design-driven decorative fixtures that often use vintage-style aesthetics. * Schoolhouse: Specializes in American-made, period-revival lighting, catering to a customer base valuing historical design authenticity. * Various small, artisanal studios: Serve local or online-direct markets for bespoke and custom decorative fixtures.
Barriers to Entry are low for niche design, but high for scaled manufacturing due to the lack of a future market, which deters any capital investment. Existing brand loyalty and distribution channels are the primary barriers for the remaining legacy business.
The price of an incandescent fixture is primarily composed of raw materials, manufacturing labor, and logistics. Unlike modern electronics, R&D and software costs are nonexistent, and tooling is typically fully amortized. The cost build-up is roughly 40% materials (metal, glass, wiring), 20% manufacturing labor and overhead, 15% logistics and packaging, and 25% supplier margin and SG&A.
As production volumes collapse, suppliers face diseconomies of scale, which can exert upward pressure on unit costs. However, this is often offset by low overall demand. The most volatile cost elements are commodity-based and have seen significant fluctuation.
Most Volatile Cost Elements: 1. Steel/Aluminum: Metal inputs for housings and components. Aluminum prices have fluctuated ~10-15% over the last 12 months. [Source - London Metal Exchange, 2023-2024] 2. Glass: Used for shades and diffusers. Its cost is heavily tied to energy inputs (natural gas), which have remained volatile. 3. Ocean & Road Freight: Logistics costs for moving finished goods from factories (often in Asia) to distribution centers. While down from pandemic highs, rates remain sensitive to fuel costs and geopolitical events.
Innovation in this category is centered on its replacement, not its improvement. * Regulatory Enforcement (Aug 2023): The US Department of Energy began full enforcement of rules banning the manufacture and sale of most common incandescent bulbs. This action directly eliminates the primary consumable for these fixtures, accelerating their obsolescence. * LED Filament Bulb Proliferation (2022-2024): The market has seen a surge in the quality and variety of LED bulbs that convincingly mimic the warm glow and filament-style of incandescent bulbs. This allows asset owners to achieve an "incandescent look" in existing fixtures, negating the need to source new incandescent-specific models. * Supplier Portfolio Pruning (2022-2024): Major manufacturers like Signify and Acuity Brands have actively discontinued hundreds of incandescent fixture SKUs to simplify their catalogs and focus engineering and marketing resources exclusively on LED and smart lighting systems.
| Supplier | Region | Est. Market Share (Incandescent Fixture Sub-Segment) | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acuity Brands | North America | est. 15-20% | NYSE:AYI | Strong specification-grade portfolio and deep channel access. |
| Hubbell Inc. | Global | est. 10-15% | NYSE:HUBB | Leader in commercial/industrial markets with a robust legacy portfolio. |
| Signify N.V. | Global | est. 10-15% | AMS:LIGHT | Unmatched global brand recognition (Philips) and distribution. |
| Cooper Lighting | North America | est. 5-10% | NYSE:ETN (Parent) | Broad portfolio serving residential and commercial construction. |
| Generation Lighting | North America | est. 5-10% | (Private) | Strong focus on decorative residential lighting. |
| Restoration Hardware | North America | est. <5% | NYSE:RH | Leader in high-end, design-centric decorative fixtures. |
Demand for incandescent fixtures in North Carolina is in steep decline, mirroring the national trend. The outlook is limited to minor residential replacement needs and niche use in historic preservation projects or hospitality venues seeking a specific vintage ambiance. North Carolina's strong manufacturing base and competitive corporate tax environment support some lighting fixture assembly; however, local production capacity is overwhelmingly oriented towards LED products and components, driven by firms like Wolfspeed (formerly Cree). State and municipal building codes increasingly mandate high-efficiency lighting in new construction and major renovations, legally marginalizing incandescent technology and ensuring its demand will continue to fall toward zero.
| Risk Category | Grade | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | Medium | Supplier base is shrinking and discontinuing product lines. Specific models may become unavailable, forcing a substitution. |
| Price Volatility | Low | Collapsing demand and low-tech inputs limit volatility. Risk of "end-of-life" price hikes is offset by low buyer dependency. |
| ESG Scrutiny | High | This is a highly energy-inefficient product. Continued purchasing directly contradicts corporate sustainability and carbon reduction goals. |
| Geopolitical Risk | Low | The product is low-tech, with a geographically diverse and commoditized supply chain for its basic components (metal, glass, wire). |
| Technology Obsolescence | High | The technology is functionally obsolete, having been fully superseded by a superior alternative (LED) that is now mandated by regulation. |
Execute a Proactive Phase-Out. Initiate a formal strategy to eliminate incandescent fixtures from all specifications and purchasing catalogs. Partner with strategic suppliers (e.g., Acuity, Hubbell) to identify 1-for-1 LED replacement fixtures and retrofit kits. Target a 90% reduction in spend on this UNSPSC code within 24 months, yielding an estimated 50-75% reduction in associated lighting energy costs and supporting corporate ESG targets.
Consolidate and Secure Residual Spend. For the <10% of spend in unavoidable niche applications, consolidate all purchasing with a single national distributor. This leverages remaining volume and mitigates supply risk from exiting manufacturers. Negotiate a 12-month fixed-price agreement for a defined list of SKUs to secure "last-time buy" inventory and protect against price increases as production volumes for these legacy items dwindle.