Market Analysis – 45111607 – Overhead projectors

Executive Summary

The global market for overhead projectors (UNSPSC 45111607) is in terminal decline, with a current estimated total addressable market (TAM) of less than $8 million USD. The category is projected to contract sharply with a 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately -18% as digital alternatives saturate all primary use cases. The single greatest threat is complete technology obsolescence, which also presents an opportunity to accelerate migration to modern, standardized digital display solutions and eliminate a high-risk, low-value supply chain.

Market Size & Growth

The market for new overhead projectors is residual and shrinking rapidly. The primary demand has shifted entirely to digital projectors and interactive flat panels, rendering this category obsolete in most developed markets. Remaining demand is concentrated in niche, low-resource educational settings or for servicing a dwindling installed base.

Largest Geographic Markets (by remaining demand): 1. India & Southeast Asia 2. Sub-Saharan Africa 3. Latin America

Key Drivers & Constraints

1. Constraint (Technology): The primary constraint is displacement by superior technology. Digital projectors, interactive displays, and even document cameras offer greater connectivity, brightness, portability, and functionality at an increasingly competitive total cost of ownership (TCO).
2. Constraint (Manufacturing Base): Major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like 3M have ceased production. The remaining manufacturing landscape consists of a few niche players and low-cost offshore producers, leading to inconsistent quality and supply.
3. Constraint (Supply Chain): The supply chain for critical components, particularly specialty halogen projection bulbs (e.g., ENX, FXL types), is fracturing. As production volumes plummet, component costs and supply continuity risks are increasing significantly.
4. Driver (Niche Demand): A minor driver is the need for simple, power-efficient, and low-cost projection in off-grid or budget-constrained educational institutions in developing nations.
5. Driver (Legacy Support): A small, service-based demand exists for replacement parts and bulbs to support the long tail of installed units in older schools, government agencies, and training facilities.

Competitive Landscape

Barriers to entry are effectively non-existent from a technology standpoint, but market incentives are negative, deterring any new investment. The competitive space is defined by legacy brands and distributors of remaining inventory.

⮕ Tier 1 Leaders (Legacy) * 3M Company: Formerly a market leader; has since discontinued its product lines but retains brand recognition. Stock is now primarily refurbished or new-old-stock (NOS). * Elmo Company, Ltd.: A historical Japanese optics and education-technology firm. Production is minimal, focusing on other AV technologies. * Apollo (formerly part of ACCO Brands): Once a dominant name in presentation products; now primarily a distributor of low-cost, foreign-manufactured units and accessories.

⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Buhl Industries, Inc.: A long-standing niche supplier for educational and library equipment, offering basic models and replacement parts. * Various unbranded manufacturers (China/India): Produce low-cost clones for regional distribution, often with inconsistent quality. * Specialty AV Distributors (e.g., Full Compass, B&H Photo): Key channel for sourcing remaining inventory and, more importantly, replacement parts and bulbs.

Pricing Mechanics

The unit price for an overhead projector is low, typically ranging from $150 to $400 USD, reflecting its simple and dated technology. The price build-up is dominated by basic components: a stamped metal or molded plastic chassis, a fresnel lens, a projection head with a mirror and focusing lens, a cooling fan, and a high-intensity halogen lamp assembly. The primary value has shifted from the unit itself to the availability and cost of its consumables and replacement parts.

The most volatile cost elements are related to the dwindling supply chain for legacy components. * Halogen Projection Bulbs: As major lamp manufacturers cease production runs, prices for remaining stock have increased by an est. 40-60% over the last 36 months. * Logistics & Freight: General freight cost increases disproportionately impact these bulky, low-value items, adding est. 15-25% to the landed cost compared to pre-2021 levels. * Molded/Stamped Components: While raw material costs have stabilized, the low-volume production runs required for these parts have eliminated economies of scale, keeping piece prices high.

Recent Trends & Innovation

Innovation in this category has ceased. All recent activity relates to market contraction and end-of-life management. * Product Line Discontinuation (c. 2020-2022): Major historical manufacturers, including 3M, formally exited the market, shifting the supply landscape to a small number of niche suppliers and distributors of residual stock. * Shift to Parts & Service Market (2022-Present): The market has transitioned almost entirely to a service-oriented model focused on providing replacement bulbs, fan motors, and lenses for the installed base. E-commerce platforms are the primary channel for these components. * "Last-Time Buy" Announcements (2023): Several component suppliers, particularly for specific lamp types, have issued last-time buy notices to distributors, signaling the final shutdown of key production lines and creating short-term supply volatility.

Supplier Landscape

Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

Demand for new overhead projectors in North Carolina is negligible and effectively zero within the corporate sector. The state's well-funded public education system (K-12 and university) and robust corporate base have long since transitioned to digital projection and interactive displays. Remaining demand is exclusively for servicing a small, dwindling number of legacy units in older public schools or community centers. There is no local manufacturing capacity. Sourcing is limited to national AV distributors and online retailers who stock replacement parts, primarily halogen bulbs. Any procurement strategy for NC should focus on decommissioning remaining units rather than sustaining them.

Risk Outlook

Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

1. Initiate a "Decommission and Replace" program. Conduct a global audit of all active overhead projectors. Forbid new purchases and implement a funded plan to replace all remaining units with a pre-approved, standardized, low-cost digital projector or display model within the next 12 months. This mitigates future supply risk and modernizes the asset base.

2. For any unit deemed business-critical and non-replaceable within 12 months, execute a consolidated "Last-Time Buy" for critical spares. Identify the specific bulb models required (e.g., ENX, FXL) and procure a 24-month supply from a national specialty distributor. This secures operational continuity during the final phase-out period and hedges against extreme price volatility on scarce parts.