Market Analysis – 60102906 – Overhead bills

Market Analysis Brief: Overhead Projection Supplies (UNSPSC 60102906)

1. Executive Summary

The market for overhead projection supplies—primarily transparency films and replacement bulbs—is a legacy category in terminal decline. The current global market is estimated at less than $35 million and is contracting at a 3-year CAGR of est. -9%. The primary driver of this decline is rapid technology substitution by digital projectors and interactive whiteboards. The single biggest threat is accelerating product discontinuation by major suppliers, creating significant end-of-life supply risks for the remaining installed base.

2. Market Size & Growth

The global Total Addressable Market (TAM) for overhead projection supplies is small and shrinking as the technology is superseded in educational and corporate environments. The market is projected to decline at an accelerated rate over the next five years as the remaining hardware reaches the end of its functional life. The largest geographic markets are those with a large, previously established installed base.

• Projected 5-Year CAGR: est. -11.5%
• Largest Geographic Markets: 1. North America, 2. Europe, 3. Asia-Pacific (developing regions)

3. Key Drivers & Constraints

1. Constraint (Technology Obsolescence): The primary market force is the near-total replacement of overhead projectors with digital projectors, interactive whiteboards (e.g., SMART Boards), and large-format displays. This has eliminated nearly all new demand.
2. Constraint (Digital Pedagogy): Educational and corporate training practices have shifted to digital-native content (PowerPoint, Google Slides, collaborative software), rendering physical transparencies obsolete for content creation.
3. Driver (MRO Demand): A small, residual demand stream exists for maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO), specifically for replacement bulbs and films for the lingering installed base in under-funded institutions or specialized applications.
4. Driver (Niche Use Cases): The category sees minor, sporadic demand from artists using projectors for tracing and from certain government or legal settings where simple, non-digital presentation methods are required for security or procedural reasons.
5. Constraint (Supplier Exit): Key manufacturers are actively rationalizing SKUs and exiting the category due to collapsing demand and low profitability, creating supply continuity risks.

4. Competitive Landscape

The market is highly fragmented and characterized by legacy brands and low-cost aftermarket players competing for a shrinking pool of demand. Barriers to entry are exceptionally low from a technical standpoint, but the lack of any growth potential serves as a powerful deterrent to new entrants.

⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * 3M Company: The historical market leader in transparency films, differentiated by strong brand recognition and legacy quality standards. * ACCO Brands (Apollo): A key player through its Apollo presentation products brand, offering a broad portfolio of both films and projector hardware. * Avery Dennison: A major office products manufacturer with strong distribution channels, though this is a non-core part of its business.

⮕ Emerging/Niche players * School Specialty: A distributor focused on the K-12 education vertical, offering curated and private-label options. * Pureland Supply: A niche online retailer specializing in replacement projector lamps and bulbs for a vast range of legacy models. * Office Supply Private Labels: Brands from Staples, Office Depot, and AmazonBasics that offer low-cost film alternatives.

5. Pricing Mechanics

The price build-up for this commodity is straightforward, dominated by raw material and logistics costs. For transparency films, the primary input is polyester (PET) resin sheets, which are cut and packaged. For bulbs, costs include specialized glass, tungsten filaments, halogen gas, and precision assembly. Margins are thin across the supply chain due to intense competition and low demand.

The three most volatile cost elements are: 1. Polyester (PET) Resin: The main input for films, its price is linked to crude oil. PET prices saw significant volatility, with increases of over +20% in 2022 before stabilizing. [Source - ICIS, Jan 2023] 2. Global Freight: As a low-value, distributed good, ocean and LTL freight costs represent a significant portion of the landed cost. Global container rates, while down from 2021 peaks, remain ~40% above pre-pandemic levels. [Source - Drewry, May 2024] 3. Tungsten: A critical component for bulb filaments, with prices subject to mining output and export policies, primarily from China. Prices have seen moderate but persistent increases of est. 5-8% annually.

6. Recent Trends & Innovation

Innovation in this category is focused on cost reduction and supply chain management, not new product features. * SKU Rationalization (Ongoing since 2022): Major manufacturers like 3M have been aggressively discontinuing less common film types (e.g., color, gridded, plotter-specific) to focus production on standard clear, letter-sized sheets. * Channel Consolidation (2023-2024): Sales have almost completely migrated from physical retail to B2B e-commerce platforms (Amazon Business, Grainger, Uline) and specialized educational suppliers. This shift has favored large distributors over manufacturers. * Aftermarket Dominance (Ongoing): The market for replacement bulbs is now dominated by third-party aftermarket manufacturers, not OEMs. These suppliers offer lower prices (20-40% less than OEM list) but with inconsistent quality and shorter lifespans, reflecting the MRO nature of the demand.

7. Supplier Landscape

8. Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

Demand in North Carolina is low and mirrors the national trend of decline. The state's large public school system (NC Public Schools) and university networks (UNC and NC State systems) have largely transitioned to digital presentation technology. Residual demand comes from a small number of under-funded rural schools, specific state agencies, and for MRO on remaining hardware. There is no significant local manufacturing capacity for this commodity; supply is fulfilled from national and regional distribution centers for suppliers like Staples, Grainger, and School Specialty, which have a strong logistics footprint in the state. State procurement contracts for office supplies are the primary purchasing vehicle.

9. Risk Outlook

10. Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

1. Consolidate & Automate Spend. Consolidate all spend for overhead supplies under a single national office-supply distributor's e-catalog. This will capture residual demand from the est. 10-15% of sites still using the technology, eliminate rogue spend, and reduce administrative overhead for this non-strategic category. Target a 5-8% price reduction through volume consolidation.
2. Execute End-of-Life Strategy. Mitigate the High-rated supply risk by conducting a last-time-buy analysis. Survey key user groups to forecast final demand for the next 24-36 months, focusing on critical replacement bulbs. Secure this final inventory now to prevent work stoppages as manufacturers accelerate product exits and aftermarket quality becomes unreliable.