The global market for educational books, which includes economics resources, is estimated at $55-60B USD. While the broader market shows modest growth (est. 1-2% CAGR), the specific segment of printed economics books faces pressure from digital substitution and the adoption of Open Educational Resources (OER). The 3-year historical CAGR for the physical book segment is near flat, estimated at -0.5% to 1.0%. The most significant threat is technology obsolescence, as school districts and higher education institutions increasingly favor integrated digital learning platforms over static, printed materials, fundamentally altering the cost structure and supplier landscape.
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for the broader educational publishing industry, encompassing K-12 and higher education materials, is the most relevant proxy. The specific sub-segment of economics activity books represents an estimated $400-500M of this total. The market is mature, with growth driven primarily by curriculum updates and emerging market adoption, offset by digital displacement in developed nations. The projected 5-year CAGR for the combined print and digital educational content market is est. 2.1%.
The three largest geographic markets are: 1. North America (USA, Canada) 2. Europe (UK, Germany, France) 3. Asia-Pacific (China, India, Japan)
| Year | Global TAM (Educational Publishing) | Projected CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | est. $58.2B | — |
| 2026 | est. $60.7B | 2.1% |
| 2028 | est. $63.3B | 2.1% |
Barriers to entry are High, driven by the immense cost of content development, the need for established sales and distribution networks into thousands of school districts, and strong brand recognition.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * Pearson plc: Dominant in higher education and K-12 assessment, with a strong pivot to its "Pearson+" digital platform. * McGraw Hill: A leader in K-12 and higher-ed courseware, offering integrated digital solutions like "Connect" and "ALEKS." * Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMH): Strong K-12 focus with deep penetration in US school districts; now a private company focusing on its "Connected" digital teaching platform. * Cengage Group: Major player in US higher education, differentiated by its "Cengage Unlimited" subscription service for digital textbooks.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Council for Economic Education (CEE): Non-profit provider of K-12 economics curriculum and resources, often used as a supplement. * St. Louis Fed Education: Provides free, high-quality economics lesson plans and data resources, acting as a key OER provider. * Goodheart-Willcox: Employee-owned publisher specializing in Career and Technical Education (CTE), which can include applied economics. * Various OER Platforms (e.g., OpenStax): Rice University's OpenStax offers peer-reviewed, openly licensed textbooks, including Principles of Economics, disrupting the traditional pricing model.
The price of an economics resource book is built from several layers. The largest component is typically publisher-controlled costs and margin, including content development (author royalties, editorial staff, instructional design), sales & marketing, and corporate overhead. This can account for 60-70% of the list price. Manufacturing (printing, paper, binding) represents 15-25%, and distribution/freight accounts for the remaining 5-15%. Pricing is often set based on "value" to the institution (i.e., what the market will bear) and competitor pricing, rather than a pure cost-plus model.
The three most volatile cost elements are: 1. Paper Pulp (NBSK): Increased ~15-20% over the last 24 months due to supply constraints and energy costs. [Source - various commodity indices, 2023-2024] 2. Ocean & Truckload Freight: While down from 2021 peaks, rates remain ~30-40% above pre-pandemic levels, impacting landed cost. [Source - Drewry, Freightos Baltic Index, 2024] 3. Natural Gas (for printing/drying): Highly volatile, with regional price spikes of over 50% in the last 24 months impacting printer operating costs.
| Supplier | Region | Est. Market Share (Educ. Pub.) | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pearson plc | UK | est. 15-18% | LON:PSON | Global scale; leader in digital assessment and platforms. |
| McGraw Hill | USA | est. 12-15% | (Private) | Strong K-12 and Higher Ed digital courseware (Connect). |
| Cengage Group | USA | est. 10-12% | (Private) | Pioneer of "Cengage Unlimited" digital subscription model. |
| Houghton Mifflin Harcourt | USA | est. 8-10% | (Private) | Deep K-12 school district penetration in the US. |
| Wiley | USA | est. 5-7% | NYSE:WLY | Strong in research publishing and higher-ed digital content. |
| Scholastic Corp. | USA | est. 4-6% | NASDAQ:SCHL | Dominant in children's books and K-8 school book fairs. |
| OpenStax | USA | N/A (Non-profit) | N/A | Leading OER provider, setting a "free" price benchmark. |
North Carolina represents a significant, stable demand center for economics resources. The state's public school system is one of the largest in the US, and its robust higher education network, including the 17-campus UNC System and numerous private colleges, creates consistent demand. The NC Department of Public Instruction manages a textbook adoption process, typically on a 5-7 year cycle, which dictates purchasing for K-12. This creates a predictable, albeit highly competitive, sales environment for approved publishers. Local printing capacity exists, but major publishers typically leverage national or international printing contracts for scale. The state's competitive corporate tax rate and strong logistics infrastructure (ports, highways) make it an attractive location for distribution centers, but not necessarily content creation, which remains concentrated in traditional publishing hubs.
| Risk Category | Grade | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | Medium | Dependency on paper mills and specialized printers. While multiple sources exist, capacity can tighten, and lead times can extend. |
| Price Volatility | High | Direct exposure to volatile paper, energy, and freight markets. Digital transition mitigates this, but print remains a key cost driver. |
| ESG Scrutiny | Medium | Increasing focus on sustainable paper sourcing (FSC/SFI certification) and end-of-life recyclability. Reputational risk is growing. |
| Geopolitical Risk | Low | Content is primarily developed domestically for the US market. Some risk if printing is heavily concentrated in a single overseas region (e.g., China). |
| Technology Obsolescence | High | The traditional printed textbook model is under direct threat from more effective, lower-cost digital platforms and OER. |
Consolidate spend with a Tier-1 supplier offering a bundled print/digital "Inclusive Access" model. This can secure a 15-25% discount versus list price on digital access and cap exposure to print price volatility. Target suppliers with strong digital platforms (e.g., McGraw Hill, Pearson) to ensure a future-proof solution and negotiate multi-year agreements tied to curriculum adoption cycles for maximum leverage.
Mitigate long-term cost and risk by piloting Open Educational Resources (OER) for introductory economics courses. Partner with an OER provider (e.g., OpenStax, Lumen Learning) to replace high-cost textbooks. This can yield savings of 80-100% on material costs for targeted courses. The pilot will test faculty adoption and student outcomes, de-risking a broader-scale transition away from the traditional publisher oligopoly.