The global market for crude throughput services, representing the value of refining activities, is an estimated $131 billion as of 2023. This market is projected to see modest growth, with a 3-year CAGR of approximately 2.1%, driven by capacity additions in Asia and the Middle East offsetting rationalization in OECD nations. The single greatest threat to the industry is the combination of intense ESG-related regulatory pressure and the long-term demand destruction from vehicle electrification. Conversely, the most significant opportunity lies in upgrading refinery complexity to process cost-advantaged crudes and integrating biofuel or chemical production streams.
The global Total Addressable Market (TAM) for crude throughput services is estimated by valuing global refining capacity at an average tolling fee. Growth is expected to be slow but steady, primarily driven by non-OECD demand for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks. The three largest markets by refining capacity are 1. Asia-Pacific (led by China), 2. North America (led by the USA), and 3. Europe.
| Year | Global TAM (est.) | 5-Yr Projected CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $134 Billion | - |
| 2029 | $148 Billion | ~2.0% |
Source: Internal analysis based on IEA refining capacity data and estimated average tolling fees.
Barriers to entry are extremely high due to immense capital intensity (>$10B for a new world-scale refinery), complex regulatory and permitting hurdles, and significant economies of scale.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * Sinopec (China): World's largest refiner by capacity, focused on supplying China's massive domestic market. * ExxonMobil (USA): Operates a global network of highly complex, integrated refining and chemical sites, focused on technology and efficiency. * Marathon Petroleum (USA): Largest U.S. refiner with an optimized system and extensive midstream logistics assets. * Reliance Industries (India): Operates the world's largest and most complex refining hub (Jamnagar), built for export and feedstock flexibility.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Valero Energy (USA): A leading independent refiner and a first-mover in converting assets to produce renewable diesel. * Neste (Finland): Successfully pivoted from a traditional oil refiner to a global leader in renewable fuels and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). * Aramco (Saudi Arabia): Rapidly expanding its downstream footprint globally, leveraging access to its own vast crude production.
The price for crude throughput services is implicitly set by the "crack spread"—the margin between the cost of a barrel of crude oil and the value of the refined products it yields. In direct "tolling" agreements, where a third party pays a refinery to process its crude, pricing is a negotiated per-barrel fee. This fee is designed to cover the refinery's fixed operating costs (labor, maintenance, overhead), variable operating costs (natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, catalysts), and a profit margin.
This fee structure is highly dependent on the type of crude being processed, contract volume, and duration. More complex refineries can process cheaper, lower-quality (heavy, high-sulfur) crudes, enabling them to offer more competitive tolling fees or capture higher margins. The three most volatile cost elements in the price build-up are:
| Supplier | Region | Est. Global Capacity Share | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinopec | China | ~15% | SHA:600028 | Unmatched scale and integration with Chinese domestic market. |
| ExxonMobil | Global | ~5% | NYSE:XOM | Technologically advanced, high-complexity, integrated chemical sites. |
| Marathon Petroleum | North America | ~3% | NYSE:MPC | Largest U.S. refiner with a dominant logistics and retail network. |
| Reliance Industries | India | ~3% | NSE:RELIANCE | World's largest, most complex refinery with extreme feedstock flexibility. |
| Shell plc | Global | ~3% | LON:SHEL | Pivoting portfolio towards chemicals and low-carbon energy hubs. |
| Valero Energy | Americas | ~3% | NYSE:VLO | Leader in operational efficiency and large-scale renewable diesel production. |
| Aramco | Global | ~3% | TADAWUL:2222 | Deep integration with upstream production; rapidly expanding globally. |
North Carolina has zero crude oil refining capacity. The state's entire demand for refined products—gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel—is met by supply from other regions, primarily the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC). The primary mode of transportation is via two major arteries: the Colonial Pipeline and the Plantation Pipeline. This logistical arrangement makes the state's supply chain highly efficient in normal conditions but extremely vulnerable to pipeline disruptions, as demonstrated by the 2021 Colonial Pipeline cyberattack. From a procurement perspective, sourcing "throughput services" is not possible locally; strategy must focus on securing product supply from USGC refiners and mitigating transportation and storage risks.
| Risk Category | Grade | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | Medium | Global capacity is sufficient, but regional disruptions (hurricanes, pipeline outages, unplanned maintenance) can cause significant, albeit temporary, shortages. |
| Price Volatility | High | Throughput margins ("crack spreads") are extremely volatile, directly linked to fluctuating crude oil and refined product markets driven by geopolitics and economic cycles. |
| ESG Scrutiny | High | Refineries are under intense and growing pressure from investors, regulators, and the public to decarbonize and reduce their environmental footprint. |
| Geopolitical Risk | High | Crude oil is the world's most politicized commodity. Sanctions, conflict, and national policy changes directly and immediately impact refinery feedstock cost and availability. |
| Technology Obsolescence | Medium | The long-term threat from electrification is certain, but the transition will span decades. Near-term risk is low, but long-term capital investments face high uncertainty. |
Mitigate Logistical Risk. Secure refined product supply agreements from at least two different USGC-based suppliers to diversify refinery-specific risk. Concurrently, lease firm storage capacity in the Southeast region (e.g., in SC or GA) equivalent to 10 days of critical consumption. This creates a physical buffer against potential disruptions on the Colonial or Plantation pipelines, reducing spot-market exposure during outages.
Embed Flexibility in Contracts. Structure supply contracts to include advantaged crude-pricing pass-throughs, allowing for shared savings when your supplier processes discounted crude grades. Furthermore, negotiate right-of-first-refusal clauses for the future offtake of renewable diesel or SAF from the supplier's system. This provides a hedge against fossil fuel volatility and prepares the supply chain for future low-carbon fuel mandates.