Market Analysis – 78182102 – Electric mobility service provider

Executive Summary

The global Electric Mobility Service Provider (EMSP) market is experiencing hyper-growth, projected to reach est. $35 billion by the end of 2024. Driven by accelerating EV adoption and supportive regulation, the market is forecast to grow at a ~32% CAGR over the next three years. The primary strategic challenge is navigating a fragmented landscape of charging networks and competing standards. The greatest opportunity lies in leveraging software and data analytics to create a seamless user experience and unlock new revenue streams like smart charging and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) services.

Market Size & Growth

The global market for e-mobility services is expanding rapidly as the EV parc grows. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) is driven by the fees EMSPs collect for facilitating charging sessions, including subscriptions, per-session fees, and roaming charges. The three largest geographic markets are 1. China, 2. Europe (led by Germany, Norway, and the Netherlands), and 3. North America (led by the USA). This growth is directly correlated with government mandates and automaker commitments to vehicle electrification.

[Source - Precedence Research, Jan 2024]

Key Drivers & Constraints

1. Demand Driver (EV Adoption): Global passenger EV sales are projected to surpass 20 million units annually by 2026. This creates a direct and compounding demand for public and private charging services.
2. Regulatory Driver (Mandates & Incentives): Government policies, such as the EU's Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) and the US NEVI program ($7.5 billion fund), are forcing and funding the build-out of public charging infrastructure, expanding the network EMSPs can access.
3. Technology Shift (Charging Speed & Standards): The proliferation of DC fast chargers (>150kW) and the recent industry shift in North America towards the NACS standard are creating both opportunities and obsolescence risks for network hardware. 4s. Constraint (Grid Infrastructure): The capacity of local and regional electricity grids is a major bottleneck. Deploying clusters of fast chargers requires significant, costly grid upgrades and can incur high "demand charges" from utilities, impacting profitability.
4. Constraint (Interoperability): A fragmented landscape of charging networks with proprietary payment systems creates a poor user experience. While roaming hubs (e.g., Hubject) are improving this, true seamless interoperability remains a significant challenge.

Competitive Landscape

Barriers to entry are moderate-to-high, defined by the capital required for hardware partnerships, the network effects of a large user base, and the software development needed for a robust platform.

⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * ChargePoint: Dominant in North America with a comprehensive hardware and software platform; strong in workplace and fleet charging solutions. * Shell Recharge: Major European player with a vast roaming network, backed by Shell's global energy and retail footprint. * EVgo: US-based leader in public DC fast charging, known for its partnerships with automakers (GM, Nissan) and retail hosts. * Plugsurfing: A leading European EMSP, now a subsidiary of Fortum, focused on a pure-play, asset-light model with extensive roaming agreements.

⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Electrify America: Volkswagen subsidiary building a high-power, cross-country DC fast charging network in the US, a key enabler for long-distance EV travel. * Ionity: A joint venture of major automakers (BMW, Ford, Hyundai, Mercedes, VW) focused on high-power charging along European highways. * Blink Charging: Growing its US footprint aggressively through acquisitions of smaller networks and hardware companies.

Pricing Mechanics

The price an EV driver pays is a build-up of several cost layers. The EMSP aggregates access to charging stations owned by various Charge Point Operators (CPOs). The EMSP's core function is to simplify this access via a single app, card, and bill. The final price typically includes the CPO's cost of energy and station uptime, a roaming fee if the CPO is on a partner network, and the EMSP's service margin. This margin covers software development, customer service, and payment processing.

Pricing models vary, including pay-as-you-go (per kWh, per minute, or flat session fee) and monthly/annual subscriptions that offer preferential rates. The subscription model is gaining traction as it provides recurring revenue for the EMSP and cost predictability for high-mileage drivers. The most volatile elements in the price stack are external factors passed through to the end-user.

Most Volatile Cost Elements: 1. Wholesale Electricity: Can fluctuate hourly. Recent spikes in natural gas prices have driven average US commercial electricity rates up ~12% year-over-year. [Source - EIA, Feb 2024] 2. Utility Demand Charges: Fees for peak power usage can constitute 30-70% of a DC fast charger's monthly electricity bill, a highly unpredictable cost. 3. Charging Hardware: Semiconductor and raw material (copper, steel) volatility has caused charger hardware costs to fluctuate by est. 5-15% over the last 18 months.

Recent Trends & Innovation

• Interoperability & Open Payments (April 2024): The EU's AFIR regulation now mandates that all new publicly accessible chargers support ad-hoc payment via a standard payment card reader, reducing reliance on app-based, closed-network systems.
• NACS Adoption (2023-2024): Nearly every major automaker in North America (Ford, GM, Rivian, etc.) has announced a shift from the CCS standard to Tesla's NACS connector, forcing all EMSPs and CPOs to re-evaluate their hardware strategy.
• Consolidation via M&A (Ongoing): Major energy companies continue to acquire charging players to build integrated ecosystems. BP's acquisition of TravelCenters of America ($1.3B, May 2023) included a plan to install a charging network, showing the convergence of energy, retail, and e-mobility.
• Smart Charging & V2G Pilots (Q1 2024): Utilities and EMSPs are increasingly launching pilots (e.g., PG&E in California) to test smart charging, which shifts charging to off-peak hours, and V2G, which allows EVs to sell power back to the grid, creating a new value stream.

Supplier Landscape

Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

North Carolina is a high-growth EV market, poised for significant acceleration. Demand is driven by a ~55% YoY increase in EV registrations and the massive investments from VinFast (EV assembly) and Toyota (battery manufacturing), which will spur both consumer and commercial fleet adoption. The supply landscape is a mix of utility-led programs, like Duke Energy's "Park & Plug," and national networks (Electrify America, EVgo) building out charging corridors along I-95, I-85, and I-40. A key regulatory consideration is Duke Energy's position as a regulated utility, which impacts rules around the resale of electricity and the structure of third-party charging agreements. State-level grants funded by the federal NEVI program are available to accelerate DC fast charger deployment.

Risk Outlook

Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

1. For corporate fleet or employee-at-home charging programs, prioritize a master agreement with an EMSP that has extensive roaming capabilities (e.g., integrates Hubject or Gireve). This maximizes network access, reduces off-network spend, and de-risks dependency on a single CPO's network reliability. Target a provider covering >90% of public chargers in key operational territories to ensure driver convenience and program adoption.

2. For on-site workplace charging, issue an RFP that mandates Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP) 1.6J or higher and smart-charging capabilities. This ensures interoperability and allows for load-balancing to avoid expensive utility demand charges. Specify hardware that is "software-defined" and modular, enabling future power upgrades and participation in V2G programs, mitigating the high risk of technology obsolescence.