Generated 2025-12-29 05:48 UTC

Market Analysis – 81111601 – Programming for Visual Basic

Executive Summary

The market for Visual Basic (VB) programming services is a niche, declining segment focused almost exclusively on the maintenance, support, and modernization of legacy enterprise applications. The global market is estimated to be contracting with a 3-year CAGR of -6.2%. While overall demand is shrinking, the talent pool is shrinking faster, creating significant supply-side risk and price volatility for the specialized expertise required to support these business-critical systems. The primary threat is technology obsolescence, which necessitates a strategic shift from long-term maintenance to planned, risk-managed migration.

Market Size & Growth

The global market for dedicated Visual Basic programming and maintenance services is a subset of the larger application support market. The total addressable market (TAM) is estimated to be $1.9 billion in 2024 and is projected to decline as legacy systems are decommissioned or migrated to modern platforms. The primary geographic markets are those with mature IT landscapes, led by 1. North America (est. 40%), 2. Western Europe (est. 30%), and 3. Japan (est. 10%).

Year Global TAM (est. USD) CAGR (YoY, est.)
2024 $1.90B -6.8%
2025 $1.77B -6.9%
2026 $1.65B -7.0%

Key Drivers & Constraints

  1. Demand Driver: Legacy System Stability. A significant number of mission-critical applications in manufacturing, finance, and logistics are built on VB6 or early VB.NET. The high cost and operational risk of replacement drives continued demand for maintenance and support services.
  2. Demand Driver: Phased Modernization. Companies are increasingly undertaking multi-year projects to migrate VB applications to modern architectures (e.g., C# on .NET, web applications). This requires developers skilled in both VB and modern languages to facilitate the transition.
  3. Supply Constraint: Shrinking Talent Pool. The primary constraint is talent scarcity. Universities no longer teach VB, and experienced developers are retiring. This creates a hyper-competitive market for a small pool of experts.
  4. Technology Constraint: End-of-Life (EOL) Risk. Classic Visual Basic 6.0 has been unsupported by Microsoft for over a decade, posing a severe security and operational risk. While VB.NET is supported, its declining ecosystem and developer community make it a strategic liability.
  5. Cost Constraint: Premium Labor Rates. Scarcity of skilled developers has driven hourly rates up significantly, making long-term maintenance contracts increasingly expensive and difficult to budget for.

Competitive Landscape

The market is highly fragmented, consisting of large IT integrators who offer legacy support as part of a broader portfolio and smaller firms who specialize in modernization.

Tier 1 Leaders * Accenture: Differentiates on end-to-end transformation services, using VB maintenance as an entry point for larger modernization and cloud migration deals. * Infosys: Offers cost-effective application maintenance and support (AMS) through its global delivery model, with established practices for managing legacy technologies. * Capgemini: Focuses on application portfolio rationalization, helping clients assess and execute strategies to retire, replace, or modernize legacy VB systems.

Emerging/Niche Players * Mobilize.Net: Specializes in automated code migration tools (e.g., Visual Basic Upgrade Companion) to convert VB6/VB.NET to modern C# or web platforms. * Advanced: A UK-based software and services firm with deep expertise in maintaining and modernizing legacy applications for a broad range of clients. * TSRI (The Software Revolution, Inc.): Provides automated modernization services, using AI to refactor and transform legacy code, including VB, into modern architectures.

Barriers to Entry: Capital intensity is low, but significant barriers exist in the form of reputation and access to talent. Clients require proven experience in handling complex, business-critical systems, and the ability to attract and retain a dwindling pool of expert developers is paramount.

Pricing Mechanics

Pricing is predominantly based on a Time & Materials (T&M) model, billed at daily or hourly rates for developer resources. The loaded daily rate for a senior VB developer in North America can range from $900 - $1,500, depending on experience and the criticality of the system. For defined modernization projects, suppliers may offer fixed-price contracts, but these carry significant risk premiums to account for unforeseen code complexity.

The price build-up is dominated by direct labor costs, which typically account for 85-90% of the total contract value. The most volatile cost elements are directly tied to talent scarcity.

Most Volatile Cost Elements: 1. Senior VB Developer Labor: Scarcity has driven rates up an estimated +15-20% over the past 24 months. 2. Automated Migration Tool Licensing: Can vary significantly based on lines of code and complexity; costs can fluctuate +/- 25% per project. 3. Project Management (for modernization): Scope creep in complex legacy projects can increase PM costs by 10-30%.

Recent Trends & Innovation

Supplier Landscape

Supplier Region(s) Est. Market Share Stock Exchange:Ticker Notable Capability
Accenture Global <5% (Fragmented) NYSE:ACN Strategic transformation and large-scale modernization
Infosys Global <5% (Fragmented) NYSE:INFY Cost-effective global AMS for legacy systems
Mobilize.Net North America <2% (Fragmented) Private Automated VB6/VB.NET to C#/Web migration tools
Advanced UK, Europe <2% (Fragmented) Private Application modernization services for mid-market & enterprise
TCS Global <5% (Fragmented) NSE:TCS Broad application portfolio management and support
Fujitsu APAC, Global <3% (Fragmented) TYO:6702 Strong presence in supporting legacy systems in Japan/APAC
TSRI North America <1% (Fragmented) Private AI-driven code analysis and automated refactoring

Regional Focus: North Carolina (USA)

Demand for Visual Basic programming in North Carolina is moderate but persistent, driven by the state's established industries, including banking and financial services in Charlotte, pharmaceuticals and life sciences in the Research Triangle Park (RTP), and traditional manufacturing. These sectors possess a significant installed base of legacy operational and back-office systems. Local supply of specialized VB talent is extremely limited, with most expertise concentrated within internal IT teams at large enterprises or provided by national service integrators. North Carolina's strong university system produces ample tech talent, but the curriculum is focused on modern stacks, exacerbating the local VB skill gap. The state's competitive corporate tax environment does not offset the premium labor costs associated with this scarce skill set.

Risk Outlook

Risk Category Grade Justification
Supply Risk High Talent pool is rapidly shrinking due to retirement with no new pipeline. High risk of supplier concentration and loss of key personnel.
Price Volatility High Scarcity of experts for critical systems creates a supplier-favorable market, allowing for significant rate premiums and unpredictable costs.
ESG Scrutiny Low Category is a professional service with a minimal environmental footprint and low exposure to social or governance controversies.
Geopolitical Risk Low Work can largely be performed remotely, and talent, while scarce, is not concentrated in a single high-risk geopolitical region.
Technology Obsolescence High The core technology (VB6) is unsupported, creating major security vulnerabilities and operational risks. VB.NET is in long-term decline.

Actionable Sourcing Recommendations

  1. Mitigate Talent Risk with Knowledge Transfer Mandates. For all VB maintenance SOWs, mandate rigorous code documentation and knowledge transfer clauses, including a requirement for suppliers to maintain a "knowledge base" for our systems. This mitigates single-developer dependency and is projected to reduce future supplier transition costs by 15-20% by creating a reusable internal asset.

  2. Initiate a Dual-Track Sourcing Strategy. Consolidate near-term (12-24 month) maintenance spend with one or two specialist suppliers offering blended-shore rates to control costs. Simultaneously, issue a formal RFI for a strategic partner to develop a 3-5 year, phased modernization roadmap to migrate high-risk VB applications to a standard corporate platform, de-risking obsolescence and lowering long-term TCO.