UNSPSC Code: 93151515
The global market for national planning services, a key segment of public sector consulting, is estimated at $45.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a 4.8% CAGR over the next three years. This growth is driven by government initiatives in digital transformation, post-pandemic economic recovery, and sustainable infrastructure development. The single greatest opportunity lies in leveraging advanced data analytics and AI to model policy outcomes, while the primary threat is geopolitical instability, which can abruptly halt long-term strategic projects and favor domestic protectionism.
The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for national planning and related public administration consulting is substantial and demonstrates steady growth. Demand is fueled by governments requiring external expertise to navigate complex challenges like climate change, economic diversification, and digital governance. The three largest geographic markets are North America (led by the U.S. federal and state governments), Western Europe (driven by EU-wide initiatives and national reforms in Germany, UK, and France), and Asia-Pacific (led by China's state-led planning and significant investments across Southeast Asia).
| Year | Global TAM (est.) | CAGR (YoY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $43.1B | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $45.2B | 4.9% |
| 2025 | $47.5B | 5.1% |
Source: Internal analysis based on data from Gartner and IBISWorld public sector consulting reports.
Barriers to entry are High, predicated on deep government relationships, extensive security clearances, a proven track record of impactful projects, and a global talent pool of public policy, economics, and technology experts.
⮕ Tier 1 Leaders * McKinsey & Company: Differentiates on high-level strategy, CEO-level government access, and influence in shaping national economic and social policy. * Boston Consulting Group (BCG): Strong reputation in public sector transformation, economic development strategy, and climate/sustainability planning. * Deloitte: Leverages its vast scale to offer end-to-end solutions, from strategy and policy development through to technology implementation and operational rollout. * PwC (Strategy&): Excels in public finance, infrastructure advisory (P3 models), and government workforce restructuring.
⮕ Emerging/Niche Players * Dalberg: Focuses exclusively on social impact, international development, and inclusive growth for governments and NGOs. * Arup: An engineering and design firm that has built a powerful niche in urban, infrastructure, and resilience planning. * Palantir Technologies: A technology firm providing sophisticated data analytics platforms for intelligence, defense, and public operations planning. * Kearney: Strong capabilities in public sector operations, strategic sourcing, and supply chain optimization.
Pricing is predominantly structured around project-based fixed fees for well-defined scopes or time-and-materials (T&M) for more exploratory engagements. The T&M model is most common, built on a blended daily rate derived from the assigned team's composition (e.g., Partner, Project Manager, Consultant, Analyst). Labor accounts for 75-85% of the total project cost, with the remainder comprising travel & expenses, data/software licensing, and a firm-level overhead and profit margin of 20-30%.
The most volatile cost elements are: 1. Senior Talent Labor: Rates for experienced public policy strategists have increased by an est. +8-12% in the last 12 months due to intense demand. 2. Specialized Data Subscriptions: Costs for proprietary economic, geospatial, and demographic data sets have risen by an est. +15-20% as they become central to analysis. 3. Travel & Expenses (T&E): Post-pandemic international airfare and lodging costs remain elevated, up +20-25% over 2019 levels. [Source: Global Business Travel Association, Jul 2023]
| Supplier | Region(s) | Est. Market Share (Public Sector) | Stock Exchange:Ticker | Notable Capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte | Global | est. 18-20% | Private Network | End-to-end Strategy-to-Implementation |
| PwC | Global | est. 15-17% | Private Network | Public Finance & Infrastructure Advisory |
| McKinsey & Co. | Global | est. 8-10% | Private | C-Suite Level National Strategy |
| BCG | Global | est. 8-10% | Private | Economic Development & Climate Strategy |
| Accenture | Global | est. 7-9% | NYSE:ACN | Digital Transformation & Tech Integration |
| Arup | Global | est. 1-2% | Private | Urban & Infrastructure Master Planning |
| Palantir | Global | est. <1% | NYSE:PLTR | Big Data Analytics & OS for Government |
Demand outlook in North Carolina is High. The state's rapid population and economic growth, particularly in the Research Triangle and Charlotte metro areas, drives significant need for strategic planning in infrastructure (transport, water, energy), economic development (attracting EV and semiconductor manufacturing), and land use. Local capacity is strong, with major offices for all Tier 1 firms in Charlotte or Raleigh and a rich ecosystem of academic expertise at UNC, Duke, and NC State. The state's proactive stance on economic planning and competitive tax environment creates a favorable and stable market for these services.
| Risk Category | Grade | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Supply Risk | Low | Highly fragmented market with numerous large, financially stable global suppliers and capable niche players. |
| Price Volatility | Medium | Primarily driven by professional labor costs, which are subject to steady wage inflation, but lacks the extreme volatility of raw material commodities. |
| ESG Scrutiny | High | The nature of the work—shaping national policy—is inherently subject to intense public and political scrutiny on social and environmental grounds. |
| Geopolitical Risk | High | Projects are highly sensitive to changes in government, international relations, and protectionist policies, which can lead to sudden contract termination. |
| Technology Obsolescence | Medium | While core advisory remains human-centric, the underlying analytical tools (AI, big data) are evolving rapidly. Firms failing to invest risk becoming uncompetitive. |
Mandate Outcome-Based Pricing. For all new engagements over $1M, structure contracts to tie 15-20% of total fees to pre-defined, measurable KPIs (e.g., investment attraction targets, carbon reduction milestones). This shifts performance risk to the supplier and ensures strategic alignment, moving beyond payment for effort to payment for results.
Unbundle Engagements to Leverage Niche Specialists. For complex projects, issue separate RFPs for distinct workstreams. Engage Tier 1 firms for overall strategy while sourcing specialized modules like climate risk modeling or digital platform design from niche experts (e.g., Arup, Palantir). This approach can unlock innovation and reduce costs by an est. 10-15%.