THE ETHIOPIAN-EGYPTIAN WATER WAR: WHO FUELED AND IGNITED THE DEBACLE AND IGNOMININIOU.S.  FAILURE OR FIASCO?

By Ambassador/Professor David de Chand

Dec 26, 2020(Nyamilepedia) — The ongoing Ethiopia-Egyptian Water War debacle evolved into sudden failure to catastrophic event. This is an ignominious failure in humiliation to their fiasco diplomatic self-fatality of Ethiopian crisis in the Northern region of heterogeneous ethnic federal system in Ethiopia’s are united with diversity and multiculturalism with the Northern Region of Tigrey it shouldn’t be a surprise to insinuate as a natural phenomenon, but, concretely said it is a  paradox of leadership embrio gilo  or an acutely painful misunderstanding between Ethiopian -Egyptian Waters War. When there is a serious problem(s), then there is a peaceful solution(s) to resolve both sustainability.

This situation came down like an avalanche of the economic debacle or crisis that political economists known as the Great Depression or downwards spiral in the international marketplace affecting globally directly or indirectly. Peaceful resolution is at hand with South Sudan’s involvement, otherwise this mentioned debacle is extended into South Sudan as we speak. Egypt is now in South Sudan affecting political issues to both North Sudan and Ethiopia as a three-fold debacle chaos as diversion. To resolve jurisdictional disputes amicably there must be a compromise to both countries’ humanity stainability.  

If this situation continuously to be ignored by the regional and the international communities and the superpowers with adverse partiality, the Horn of Africa could become another cockpit  of war in this volatile regions like the Arab-Israeli conflict for the past Seventy two (73) years, and the Indo-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir retrospect to the split from India in the post independence in 1947era during the East-West ideological confrontations same as the Cold War without any beam of light at the end of the tunnel. 

This Water’s War has been perpetuated by Egypt against Ethiopia for generations to the scramble of pre-colonial, to colonial and post-decolonization period with blatant aggression to exercise extreme sophistical negative ultraconservative of nationalism. Pan-Arab national Islamism of extreme new Field Marshal Abdul Fatah with neo-colonial aggressive foreign policy rapprochement in the region refused to comply with humanity.  African states in the region have been keenly watching and documenting the Egyptian moves throughout Africa and the Middle East. The Water War political ideology that being pursued by Egypt’s military junta could plunge the region into war far more seriously.  catastrophic consequences that we could not have imagined to this day and it is already a volatile region of the Horn of Africa to this day and hour. Any foreign powers that would opt to take sides in this brewing Water crisis could become the real victim to this Adversarial ulterior motive failure to destabilize Africa with blind ambition to reap the fruits of their victims, which could backfire with real controversies from the In Opposition(s) (IO) united to war against its enemies. Africa and the people of the Horn and the Nile Valley would identify the powers to be in the region in the aggression against Ethiopia, while North and South Sudan being in the mix.  

Nevertheless, the Water War will not only stop in Ethiopia specifically geared towards the construction and completion of such a great beneficial edifice water reservoir in the region and the Greatest in Africa. “We the people” of United Sudan of Africa (U.S. A) would assuredly opposed Egyptian’s dreams to complete the unfinished Jonglei Canal project excavated by the French Compiegne Construction International (CCI) without any legal authorization from the former Sudan Strong Field Marshal who was deposed in 1985 in collision with the inhabitants of the Nuer area and the minority Dinka Bor. Dinka’s migrated from their original homeland in Bahr-el-Ghazal during the Great Migration of (1450-1800 AD) to East Africa and beyond. These concerns such desertification and environmental degradation encroachment, it’s impact on their live-stocks and the wildlife Conservation alike, and the root causes of the civil war that finally split the experiment Africa’s largest land that created said by a renowned a scholar and politician Sudanese Professor Mansour Khalid a shadow writer of the late John Garang’s called the “Paradox of Two Sudan’s.” Dr. Mansour Khalid is a prominent political thinker always using his boundless knowledge and vast experience to produce what is considered next to none. In this substantial work he bets on his crucial role in making historical events that marked contemporary Sudan political history. Further to that, this work is appalling and challenging as informative and documentary in its detailed content to failure of Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 (CPA) its arbiters, its major players, and its ultimate failure to produce a united Sudan. Once the political issues are resolved within South Sudan, the United Sudan of Africa is forthcoming as Sudan in unity.

 Field Marshal Gaffer El-Nuiemri was deposed from power in 1985 by the civilian population the second of its kind in the 50 years plus in Sudan and was replaced the late Field Marshal Sawar Al-Dahab who led a caretaker government and was replaced by the late Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi in 1986-1989 and was toppled again by a military Junta in June 1989-2019 when unarmed students and the populace toppled the military junta in guise of democratic presence. This was a repeat of unarmed populace against 1Lt.-Gewneral Ibrahim Aboud a Veteran of the North African Campaign who was an officer of the 10,000 Sudan Defense Forces (SDF) under the British command like the British India and other colonies in the British Empire wherefore it allegedly said  that the “sun never set over the Union Jack” what  Frederick the Great remember for having articulated  that “l’audacite, l’audacite tojour” (audacity, audacity always)  against Field Marshal Rommel a general and army theorist otherwise nicknamed “The Desert Fox” or “ WU.S. tenfuchs” in German language was a Wehrmacht general and army theorist as the then Anglo-Egyptian Sudan as Condominium rule (1898-1956). 

THE WATER WAR ON THE NILES IN HISTORY

The Ethiopian-Egyptian water crisis has begun.  It will surely expand. The rest of the Nile Basin Countries (NBC) and people see the current Egyptian encroachment into Ethiopia to create political destabilization and insecurity is not only against Ethiopia, but all over the Horn Africa and beyond that Egyptians  can’t win, but will isolate its influence in Africa as implanted by the Colonel Gamal Adbul Nasser,  General Mohamed Al-Nagib and Anwasr al-Sadad  retrospect to the rise of African national liberation movements armed struggle against European colonialism in Africa. They were joined later on by Dr. Kwame Nhuram of Ghana after political independence famous  for his words that Ghana political independence is not enough” with the independence of African and an ends to racism, racialism and Xenophobia and systemic racist ideology of “Jim Crowism” that had been reinforced by the global Administrations of hardcore racism and systemic racism in the U.S. against African-Americas and to any people of color in  America”, despite of their humanity and socio-economic contributions to Make America Great Again to its perpetuity.  

The conflict between Ethiopia and Egyptian crisis over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has already started. It also happened vigorously and created cyberspace war. What’s the solution to this debacle created deliberately by the Egyptian military junta and trying to be bullying his fellow African leaders and what would be the end of this crisis and what would be the way forward? Ethiopia can’t be bullied by Egypt or by any regional or world powers. Ethiopia, South Sudan by and through CMA of United Sudan of Africa, North Sudan and their neighbors are in unity to resist any Egyptian aggression or any other regional and international powers to intervene in the Water War. We know the Government of Ethiopia couldn’t be intimidated, frightened, or overawed, especially in order to make them do what one wants by any powers. 

Historically, Ethiopia successfully resisted Italian Fascism led by Benito MU.S. so was and Italian politician and journalist who founded and led the National Fascist Party (1921-1943) who in 1936-1942 invaded and occupied Ethiopia in retaliation or revenge of the Italian colonial defeat during the Battle of Adowa that was fought in March 1896, military clashed at Adowa or Adwua. Hence, Egypt can’t intimidate or bully Ethiopia because it will meet fire with fire that could isolate Egypt in Africa as a whole and a member state of the African Union and Egyptian living and working in Africa as fellow African could feel the heat or rejection and political suspicion as spies. Most importantly, Egypt, RU.S. sia and China have started a new trafficking of human organs from Africa under the prefix that African organs are strong and urgent.

The GERD DREAMED IN THE 1960S

The Ethiopian dreamed of construction GERD in the 1960s and began in the aftermath of the topple octogenrian Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in January 2011. In just a few weeks to play Cyberthreats and a few weeks, the world abandons ethical cyber war for a less noble sort. The Egyptian youth do not know what the hell of a task they are undertaking and playing with on their figures tip. They could create a devastating situation on the construction of the GERD that’s an Ethiopian right to do without any interference from any country on the planet-Earth to give it pressure points to halt construction on the GERD. 

It could fuel and ignite war between Ethiopia and Egypt. If Egypt should be misled by any powered on the planet-Earth, many African countries and population would come to Ethiopia’s defense and million volunteers would conscript in the Ethiopia Armed Forces to face Egypt becaU.S. e the problem is Ethiopia alone, but the whole of Africa with emphasis on the Nile Basin Countries. For the Ethiopia in the Region#12 of Gambella lowlands where the GERD has been constructed closer to it, the Nuer in South Sudan and throughout the southern States of North Sudan, they would join without asking anyone because the fate of Ethiopia is our fate as well. We would be ready to fight alongside the Nuer-Ethiopians and our other Ethiopian brothers and sisters to face together the Egyptian aggression and airstrikes on the GERD. Other Ethiopian friends, allies and partisans worldwide would join the fight in the crisis. Egyptian aggression against GERD could automatically isolate Egypt in Sub-Saharan Africa forever. 

The Egyptians should reckon that any aggression against Ethiopia could have catastrophic consequences for any Egyptian’s humanity, because it could reincarnate past atrocities retrospect to  the Turco-Egyptian rule in Sudan, slave trade, ivory, Ostrich feathers, and Tick trees and Mahogany tress or about buildings in Sudan prior to the Ottoman Empires otherwise was considered by European powers as the Problem of the East because there was no way to find a suitable term to describe it except to grant political independent to non-Turks citizens demanding political independence. 

Without the shadow of a doubt, would be defeated and pharaohs could wake up with sad faces a reminder of the 1956 Anglo-Franco-Israeli Suez Canal Crisis, the June 1967 Six Day and the October 1973 Yom Kippur War in which the Egyptian 5th Army was besieged by Israeli Defense Forces(IDF) was freed only through shuttle diplomacy by the former U.S.  Secretary of State Professor Henry Kissinger of the Nixon Administration  between Cairo-Tel Aviv. In this instance, Egypt and Israel are closed Near Eastern  neighbors compared to Ethiopia that thousands of mile or Kilometers crossing the Desert to tropical and Savannah and Mountainous terrain that Egyptian soldiers could not endure for so long giving their body weights and other obstacles  such as malaria and yellow, wildlife or carnivorous  human eater, war fatigue, and walking up and down in the Mountains, hills and the valleys could have a dynamic impact on the Egyptian infantry forces and the Air Force could drop Airborne troops in such dangerous  environment plus  heavy rainfalls constantly as well that the Egyptian Army could not endure in Ethiopia or any other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Yom Kippur known as the Day of Atonement is the holiest day of the year in Judaism that the Jew worldwide observance means abstaining from physical pleasures

It’s Ethiopia’s constitutional right to construct the GERD within its jurisdiction and without any interference from any external powers under international law. When Egypt decided to construct the Aswan High Dam (AHD) a new precious edifice to be built the Soviet Union is just more than just a precious edifice piece of infrastructure. It did neither consult Ethiopia as the Source of the Blue and Sudan as the other source of White Nile, including other member states of the Nile Basin downstream and it brought the Soviet Engineers and their excavation equipment and began to start the work. Now, it’s Ethiopia’s turn to construct the GERD. It should not ask for permission from Egypt as a sovereign State and a member of the UN and its Specialized agencies and the African Union.

CRISIS IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF TIGRAY

The ongoing crisis in the Tigray Region in the northernmost region of Ethiopia did not happen alone without probable causes. The Tigray Region leaders have been misled by some regional powers with particular emphasis on the tyrannical, despotic, kleptocratic regime, human rights abuses and brutal regime of Abdul Fatah al-Assisi in Cairo, Egypt. The Egyptian claims that both the Blue Nile and the White Nile Rivers belong to Egypt is preposterous, illegal, illegitimate, illegitimate, and the biggest notorious  white lie ever pronounced by any Egyptian leaders and/or African leaders and experts as well.  In my capacity a native of the White Nile River  in Upper Nile South Sudan and so too some of my folks living along the Blue Nile come from Lake Tana in Ethiopia belongs to Ethiopia and Sudan that originates from Uganda, Mount Rwenzori in the Congo, and Limpopo River  rises from South Africa and Tanzania through South Sudan an converges with the Blue Nile at Khar (branch) and (toung (horn) means the meeting point or confluence of the two rivers that is shaped like Elephant task and flows up stream thence through Desert in Northern Sudan upstream that’s a Nilotic word meaning Elephant Task (toung guar) and converge at their confluences upstream in Khartoum, the nation’s Capital of the Republic of North Sudan belongs to the countries downstream otherwise known as the Nile Basin Countries (NBC). Of course, the Egyptians are both are Africans and Afro-Arabs, thus, the claims that the Nile belongs to Egypt has been preposterous or something that’s illogical, absurd, ridiculous, or farcical promoted or advanced by the British Condominium rule in the former Anglo-Egyptian (1898-1956) and the 1929 Nile Waters Agreement between Sudan and Egypt. The Egyptian should drop such a claim and to have a change of policy and to acknowledge that the previous Nile Waters Agreement should be considered as obsolete. Egyptian should not look back to colonial domination, oppression and exploitation, but should look forward to sharing the Niles Waters equitably with Nile Basin Countries that were not nation-states until the post-WWII era, but were colonies under foreign rule. It should halt bullying the ten Nile Basin Countries (NBC) and it should instead cooperate with the NBCs. 

There’s a specific reason for Egyptian Government to focus  its foreign policy on destabilizing Ethiopia. Firstly, Egypt is concerned about shortages and the alteration that could occur on the Nile Delta if the fresh water from the downstream falls below and the salty  water from the Mediterranean Sea to destroy most of the crops  cultivated (piethke) and this could pose a real problem. The Egyptians should worry because have more than enough waters at Aswan Dam built by the former USSR before the demise of the former Soviet Union through the paradigm shift produced by the policy of Perestroika(reformation) and Glasnost( openness) in the former Soviet Union or elsewhere in the world. Egypt has already extended the Nile Waters through pipelines across all-Ghana al-Suez (the Suez Canal) to Sinai Peninsula and could extend that pipeline deeper into the Arabian Peninsula for hard currency to the other to the Middle Eastern countries, including the State of Israel of waters for sales to generate hard currency. This the specific raison d’etre that Egypt is against the ongoing construction of the Greater Ethiopian Renaissance or Dam (GERD) or the Greater Ethiopian Millennium Dam (GERMD) is a great concern of the Egypt scooping more waters in the Aswan Dam and beyond has given it leverage to bully Ethiopia first and it succeeds, could extend such a pressure point towards the downstream NBC countries.  Egyptian ultraconservative nationalism should not expand to create political tensions, political instability and insecurity in the Horn region that could aggravate more troubles producing catastrophic consequences for the entire region that is already politically and militarily volatile as a whole. In addition, Egypt has been planning to extend the AHD project towards the Egyptian-Libyan Desert to get more waters from the Nile at for free at the expense of the other member States of the Nile Basin Countries that are also in need for more waters for agricultural development to feed their growing young population in the 21st century. We would urge Egypt to slow down its abrasive desire to have absolute control or monopoly because those old days are over and we are now in the era of social equality in every aspect of life. We might be forced to divert the Nile flows elsewhere for the benefit of our people who are far away from its banks and who are in dared need of sufficient waters for agricultural production (The Green Revolution) for self-reliance, self-sufficiency and food security to feed many their young population throughout the Nile Basin Countries and other vital important needs. The Water War between Ethiopia-Egypt could expand like the Containment of Communism in the post-War and the ongoing threats of international terrorism

TRANSITIONAL EYPTIAN INTERFERENCE IN ETHIOPIA

The Ethiopian dreamed in the 1960s and before that to construct the GERD, started in April 2011 weeks in the aftermath of the toppling of Egypt’s octogenarian President Hosni Mubarak. Already for more than a decade or so Egypt has been supporting, supplying and funneling arms and providing training to the Oromo National Liberation Front first against the demise Marxist-Leninist regime led by Mangisto Hale Mariam (197-1991) and thereafter the overthrown the Magesto’s regime by the current flexible ethnic federal system in Ethiopia. 

The OromoLiberation Front (ONLF) and the Tigray Region leadership have been blessed  by Egypt and a great deal as one the largest Ethnicity in Ethiopia’s 110m people of different ethnicities or nationalities. The allegation expressed by the four (4) Egyptian hackers that “You [Ethiopians] are going to make U.S.  (Egyptians) die from thirst” has been the root causes of the crisis and escalated tensions in 2020, as the U.S.  brokered negotiations between Ethiopia and Egypt unraveled and new mediated by the African Union (AU). 

The step undertaken by the U.S.  and AU to conjointly undertake a bold step to negotiate the Ethiopia- Egyptian debacle would be in the right step in the right direction in search for peaceful conflict resolution. However, our concern herein is that the outgoing incumbent President Donald J. Trump’s Administration seems to have said that it would support Egypt being the aggressor could possibly make the U.S.  to become not reliable a good peace broker because it could not be impartial in this situation. 

Therefore, the U.S. withdrew from any future negotiations to be sponsored by the African Union and other selected neutral powers in the situation. The U.S. couldn’t be impartial in this serious situation that could draw in more regional and external conflicts. Legally, politically and militarily, Egypt is the real aggressor in this instance. The way forward in this critical situation that brewing between Ethiopia and Egypt could lead to long term political instability and insecurity in the region. For the young Egyptians who perpetuated this political fervor by hacking Ethiopian Government establishments, they should know through peaceful means protocol. Hacking the Ethiopian Government institutions would be no solution. Ethiopians with great brains and thoughts could hack everything in Egypt because the young Egyptians who   perpetrated cyberespionage of Ethiopian government establishment would not discourage Ethiopia to halt the construction of the GERD that is almost to be done. There would be no government on the planet-Earth that has the political will to bring pressure to bear on Ethiopia to halt its project. This is the bottom line. The lowland Ethiopians who live near the GERD, it’s now the time to be prepared to give support and leadership behind our leaders and people for any eventuality. We hope General Assisi should realise that when Egypt constructed the Aswan High Dam (AHD) in the 1950a through the 1960s and beyond Ethiopia did not plan to bomb, to invade to ask Egypt to stop the construction of the AHD. Why should Egypt bully Ethiopia or anyone at all to go to war?

The Egyptian Government is now trying all means cementing relations with South Sudan illegal and illegitimate tyrannical, despotic, absolutist, genocidal, terror, and brutal regime in Juba, South Sudan.  The plan to complete the Jonglei Canal was one of the root causes of the war in 1983 and beyond against the military junta led by Field Marshal Gaffer Mohamed el-Nuiemeri  (1969-1985). Abdul Fatah Asisi has many things to chew, and swallow, but can’t digest them because the population living on the unfinished Jonglei Canal would not accept any move by the Egyptians to undertake an excavation of the canal any further. The completion of the Canal could be serious.  consequences for the entire population of the Greater Upper Nile region. Let’s hypothetically assume that any agreement for the completion of the unfinished Jonglei Canal could be orchestrated by Kiir-Assisi the worst Dictators and human rights abusers in Africa and the world, without the shadow of a doubt, the international community should aspect that a bloody war could disrupt peace in South Sudan create more tensions that Egyptian invaders could regret in Africa. Egyptian desire is to have a foothold and influence on the Nile River. We will not allow any Egyptian to return to Malakal to survey the Nile the Waters annually.

Firstly, in the case of Ethiopia, we will not hesitate to join Ethiopia against Ethiopia particularly the Nuer nation in Nuer-Ethiopia, South Sudan and Southern border-states of the North Sudan and according to 2008 Sudan Fifth Population Census that has become the largest nationality that negated the so-called falsehood imaginary “Dinka Majoritarianism.” We should be cautious with the intentions of the dictatorial regimes of Abdul Fatah al-Asisi  and Salva Kiir to move carefully in their schematic determined and motivated aggression against Ethiopia that makes no with good sense could not  be tolerated on the rise of Egyptian neo-colonialism and neo-imperialism in Africa. 

Secondly, Egypt not to exercise c could have monopoly of the Niles waters like it was in the past at the expense of other member nation-states that have many mouths to feed like that need waters for agricultural development for self-reliance, self-sufficiency and food security for domestic consumption and export to generate hard currency. 

Thirdly, Egypt will be faced with multifaceted problems on the issue of waters in the year ahead because all the member States would be in need of agricultural infrastructure, socio economic development. 

Fourthly, Egypt should seek peaceful conflict resolution or peaceful settlement of disputes with Ethiopia rather than through military solution Egypt does not have the capacity to defeat Ethiopia and should accept what solution agreed between the two countries. 

Fifthly, Egypt should refrain from training the Oromo National Liberation and supplying it with arms against Ethiopia and now gives it support to the Tigray in another Region of Ethiopia. 

Sixthly, any adventure to cement relations with the Salva Kiir regime that is dying horse and its days are number could further more problem for Egypt far more than the demand through military more waters and the destruction of the GERD that could be serious.  catastrophic consequences.

The U.S. Administrations in the past were divided on the basis by pigmentation of race. Such policies and beliefs still exist globally within and without the United States. I enjoy America as my new country. I have served as a veteran and émigré from the war and called myself not a lost boy, but rather as a young brave warrior, from an aristocratic family of Nuer culture, trekked or audios journey from African until I landed on the blessing American shore. With hardly anything on my back, only $50 with one-way air ticket from Monrovia, to Liberia. Upon Graduation from the College of Arts and Science, University of Liberia with a Bachelor Degree in modern World History and Political Science and sociology at my early age to pursue higher education in the United States. I was mentored by Professor Amos Sawyer as an undergraduate student and former President of Liberia, the First African Republic that gained political independence in 1847 and Ethiopia in 3000 BC.

With the pleasure and honor to have been taught political economy by former Liberian President Serif at the University of Liberia, Monrovia, Liberia, and other Africans, Americans, French, Germans, British and Irish professors or academics in Africa and Europe as well.  It was not all that easy to say, but nevertheless, I struggled hard like other immigrants in the U.S. to succeed had not been for U.S. opportunities availed itself to me and others like experiences. I have succeeded in despite of the fact that suffering from racism in all forms, but nothing deterred me to learn and to become somebody. That systemic racial ideology still remains alive and well in our American society and there is nothing hidden. From my early childhood, through formal education, experience I have the knowledge, expertise, and cross-cultural understanding to make aware of African crisis affecting the United States in adversarial settings. China, Russia, and Turkey are ready to weaken United States to both in Africa and Middle East. United States now has the opportunity to make good and support CMA of South Sudan with same concerns and respect as same to crisis in Argentina. 

Ambassador/Professor David de Chand is the President of South Sudan Democratic Front Party (South Sudan Democratic Party (SSDP), Chairman of the Civilian Militias Army (CMA) and the South Sudan National Revolutionary Army [SSNRA] in Opposition [CMA-SSNRA-IO]. He can be reached through his email at david.dechand2015@gmail.com.

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