Is the UPDF-South Sudan border clash driven by natural resources interest or an inside job?
Deng Duot Bior-Barr is a South Sudanese PhD law student at the University of Dundee in Scotland, UK.
By Deng Duot Bior-Barr, Dundee, Scotland
Saturday, 02 August 2025 (PW) — In recent weeks, the presence of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) has been noted near or along the South Sudan-Uganda border, particularly in Kajo-keji and Mughali, and the Kenyan Defence Force around areas like the Ilemi Triangle in eastern Equatoria. These incidents are more concerning and not only raise legitimate questions about South Sudan’s borders but also about whether South Sudan can protect its borders from its neighbours, who are looking for natural resources to grab at all costs.
On the other hand, there are questions about exactly what inspires the moves by these countries to attack or claim South Sudan’s land. We can also ask ourselves what exactly is fuelling this situation, according to Roland Marchal, who has explored much about the complexity of the Ilemi Triangle.
Although his work is not focused exclusively on Ilemi, he explores borderland dynamics and militarisation, which contextualise the Ilemi Triangle. He concluded that the significance of the Illemi Triangle to both countries lies in their economic interests and territorial control. Hence, this may be what has influenced Ugandan military deployments, either directly or indirectly, particularly in areas lacking strong South Sudanese state control, such as Kajo-keji and Mughali.
Nonetheless, this claim may lack substantial evidence, but no one rules out that natural resource interests and political-military dynamics require further exploration.
Is the UPDF in the Ilemi Triangle? The Ilemi Triangle is a disputed area mainly between South Sudan and Kenya, not Uganda. It is located further east, near Kapoeta (Eastern Equatoria) and northwest Kenya. Uganda borders South Sudan to the South, particularly around areas like Moyo, Lamwo, and Kitgum, but not directly in or near the Ilemi Triangle. Therefore, if the UPDF is present near South Sudan, it is more likely around the southern belt of South Sudan, not in the Ilemi Triangle itself.
Why is UPDF in South Sudan? Even if South Sudan and Uganda have an agreement that allows their military to be deployed within their respective countries if needed, the deployment of the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) in South Sudan has been necessitated by a combination of factors, primarily stemming from the ongoing conflict and instability in the country. Moreover, Uganda’s involvement is rooted in a desire to protect its national interests, including the safety of its citizens and the prevention of regional instability.
However, the recent clash between the UPDF and the South Sudan Defence Forces in Kajo-Keji, which has resulted in the loss of 6 people from both sides, according to the Kajo-Keji County commissioner, Wani Mule, is questionable, and it is outside the agreement signed by the two countries.
As Commissioner Mule narrated, the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) has deployed more troops in Kajo-Keji territories, claiming that those are their areas. “There are several areas; one is a place called Gorbeleng, another one is Merewa, and one is the place renamed Gumurope. But our name is Alimara, and another one is called Kolurunga Mountain, included so there are four areas they deployed in; these are areas inside South Sudan,” he said.
It suggests that they are not in the ill-defined Ilemi Triangle, which technically belongs to South Sudan. Although the UPDF are not in the Ilemi Triangle proper, they are on the border, and there could be resource motivations in Eastern Equatoria, Yei River State, or Central Equatoria, such as gold and other minerals in Nimule, Magwi, and Kajo-Keji. Timber and teak forests. Land for commercial agriculture or cattle grazing in Mughali and Transit routes for regional trade and smuggling, especially toward Uganda.
Substantial evidence suggests that the Kenyan Defence Forces are also targeting the Illemi Triangle areas, especially around Kapoeta and Nadapal, for their economic interests, which may also influence Ugandan military deployments, either directly or indirectly, particularly in areas lacking strong South Sudanese state control.
There are internal South Sudanese Factors too. Some may suggest that the UPDF presence in South Sudan, such as in Juba, is an “inside job,” which implies invitation, collusion, or passive allowance by actors within South Sudan, as seen in the precedent of the 2013–2016 South Sudan Civil War, where the UPDF intervened with the consent of President Salva Kiir to protect Juba and vital installations in the country. However, recently, the collaborations between SPLA (now SSPDF) commanders and Ugandan forces in border areas have become increasingly common, particularly in areas where cross-border ethnic ties (e.g., Madi, Acholi, Kakwa, and Toposa) exist.
Thus, it’s plausible that elements within the South Sudanese government or military are complicit or cooperative—either for security reasons, personal gain, or mutual interest that UPDF can exploit if they’d like to. Although the two countries have a friendly relationship, recent incidents cannot be ruled out as being influenced by their natural resource interests or inside job. Both are likely interlinked.
Currently, we can conclude that Ugandan natural resource interests are the primary motivating factor, particularly in terms of minerals, timber, and border trade, given the presence in Congo. However, it is questionable whether internal complicity or an invitation allows the UPDF’s presence in South Sudan, particularly in regions where the central government’s control is weak or selectively enforced.
Henceforth, the UPDF’s presence near the South Sudan-Uganda border is driven by a combination of natural resource interests and political-military arrangements, potentially facilitated by internal actors within South Sudan’s fragmented governance structure.
The author, Deng D’Duot Bior-Barr, is a South Sudanese PhD Candidate at the Center for Energy, University of Dundee, Scotland. He can be reached via his email address: John Deng Duot Bior-bar <dduotdit@gmail.com>
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