Opinion | Can a divided SPLM-IO effect change in South Sudan?

By Tor Madira Machier

OPINION – The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO) was established in Nasir in April 2014 following the 2013 SPLM political infighting that triggered one of the bloody civil wars in the African continent. The sole objective of what is now a divided and weak opposition group was to effect change and to work for the accomplishment of the pre-independence vision of “equal opportunities based on the principles of social justice and social solidarity of the strong and weak.”

With divided political cadres, lack of strong central leadership that is coupled with incoherent views toward the implementation of the revitalized peace agreement, can the SPLM-IO be trusted as a political organization that can help effect change that is needed in the county?

To address the question, one must look into how decisions are made in the main armed opposition group.

Based on the SPLM-IO founding papers, the group was established to effect the democratization of the main stream SPLM, a goal used by some SPLM elites, including Machar, who were at the epicenter of the disagreements that engulfed the group in December 2013. The SPLM-IO throughout the seven years of war has always been traditionally divided as to how a complete system overhaul in Juba can be achieved, be it militarily or politically.

The group’s leader and the incumbent First Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar Teny, has in many ways manipulated the decision-making process within the group along with a few individuals creating mistrust among the SPLM-IO cadres which has now created a bitterly divided SPLM-IO.

In 2015, the signing of the Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) emanated into political and military infighting resulting in the defection of senior military and political leaders, notably the late General Peter Gatdet Yaka who was then the group’s deputy chief of staff for operations, late General Gabriel Tangingye (aka Gabriel Gatwech Chan), and Gabriel Changson Lew Chang who was the chairperson of the group’s national committee for finance and economic planning.

Those opposition military generals and political leaders were opposed to the agreement given the weak position the SPLM-IO was forced to in regards to the security arrangements coupled with the lack of will the government of President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Juba was showing.

Although Machar’s decision to return to Juba in April 2016 with just a small fraction of the forces that were allowed under the agreement to accompany him, the “peace mission” Machar hoped would end the deadly civil war eventually proved to be disastrous when government forces eventually decided – without provocations – to dislodge him from the capital with a hot persuade right to the Congolese territory.

The political infighting that began in Juba over positions between General Taban Deng Gai, then chief negotiator for the group, also contributed to the failure of the 2015 peace agreement which had bitterly divided the main armed opposition group.  It is undeniable that Taban’s defection and his subsequent appointment as a successor to Machar by Kiir was a result of incoherent decisions on how to divided the few ministerial positions allocated to the group.

The 2020 return to Juba has by far divided the SPLM-IO once more.

First, army generals including the SPLA-IO military chief have remained outside of the peace dialogue having been unhappy of Machar’s return to Juba without a proper implementation of the security arrangements that, by default, put the SPLM-IO under weak political standing in its quest for reforms that in South Sudan’s political landscape demand the use of force to achieve. Lack of government commitment has also created fears among the SPLA-IO military that the Kiir-led SPLM is buying time to prepare for further conflict as it has not reported its forces to training centers were opposition forces are currently stationed as per the agreement.

Secondly, some important political cadres within the SPLM-IO such as Duer Tut, Farouk Gatkuoth, and others, have remained outside the country despite the decision by Machar in January to move its political offices to Juba. The group has publicly criticized Machar and has called for his removal indicating that the group is so divided to stand against the ruling SPLM establishment in Juba.

Under such political chaos within the group, the SPLM-IO is on the weakest side of any future competition for the leadership of the country and is destined – unless Machar acts in the shortest possible time  to reform the group – for failure.

Tor Madira Machier is a journalist and the Editor-in-chief of Sudans Post (www.sudanspost.com). However, the views expressed in this opinion piece are his own, and do not reflex those of the Sudans Post and its staff. He can be reached via: tormadira2013@gmail.com or tormadira@sudanspost.com.

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