Opinion | Where Hon. Duer gets it right and wrong in declaring self as Machar’s successor

By Deng Vanang

OPINION – Indeed failure is an orphan – said an English adage –  especially given how Machar has in the recent past been at the receiving end of mud balls thrown from every direction as the masses once held him dear as the apple of an eye flee his more repelling presence, put paying to Prophet Ngundeng Bong’s prophecy that he walks with a lonely Riek.

Nothing explains such an ordeal than this year’s June and July which mark some of the most traumatic periods of Dr. Riek Machar’s stormy 38 years in politics since 1984.

First mind-blowing salvos to land on him flew from General Simon Gatwech Dual and Honorable Duer Tut Duer who in power wrangle threaten to pull him down from the tripartite pinnacles of rebel SPLM/A-IO, First Vice Presidency and decades-old Nuer leadership.

What he thought could be of far-perched painful agony Duer brought it faster and closer home to his door step when the latter announced a lone ouster of the former as General Gatwech puts the nation on edge of a more tactically delayed bombshell.

Given his due, Duer demonstrated a token act of courage in facing a willy Machar with bare hands courtesy of his unshakable faith in his cause and confidence he exuded when reading out the declaration in a tapped audio national address, though initially hesitant in taking the restive bull by its horns without backing of guns-wielding Generals, Olony and Gatwech, unarguably third and second most powerful men respectively in the IO rebel movement next to Machar.

He cleverly managed to align his messages, ever since the tumor started to form, with that of General Gatwech lest he is seen an isolated lone ranger in his reformist faction the mainstream SPLM/A-IO disowned as independent of itself when  Brigadier General William Gatjiath Deng denounced the move public has given a wide berth.

His self-declaration he recently announced to have removed Machar and in whose position he installs himself as an interim Chairman, falling short of appending Commander-In-Chief title to an interim Chairman is the cleverest way of fending off Gatwech’s possible wrath that clearly shows his bellied dilemma to cross the Rubicon.

Machar suffered yet another fatal blow in quick succession from Salva Kiir with whom the former thought had already burred the hatchet.

On the eve of the independence day of 9th July, Kiir in his annual tradition beckoned at a wolfly Citizen TV journalist Jeff Koinange across the Kenyan border for one on one interview  to deliver his message red hot to Machar who is a stone throw away residence opposite that of J1.

Taking no chances as a salivating wolf he is always, Jeff bothered less to seek a second reply from Machar as an objective journalism requires in a rush back to his home country to count his questionable fortunes he acquires from bloody barbs exchanges.

Kiir relived what the public thought he has forgotten. And like a proverbial fool and a paper which never let go what they hold, heaped blames on Machar for all the ugly twists and turns that occurred and recurred since 15th December, 2013 and sounded an alarm of never ending war if Machar risks forgetting what he calls his betraying past.

Duer declaration

His declaration followed years of relentless campaign alongside supporters within the divided movement over struggling September 18^th Khartoum Peace Agreement and Machar’s lackluster leadership.

Siding with disenchanted membership and Duer, is Chief of General Staff, 1^st Lt. General Simon Gatwech Dual who recently accused Machar of rushing to Juba to form government with Kiir without first ensuring the security arrangements are implemented in good faith.

To many an observer, Machar under pressure of renewed detention as previously done to him in South Africa in late 2016 to late midst 2018 rather chose the most dangerous path to Juba in order to maneuver his way to the highest echelon from within.

In clarity of their words and spirits, both General Gatwech and Duer faulted Machar for falling cheap too early for the docket of First Vice President in Juba.

Much as they equally agree Machar no longer be the leader of the movement and a new leader be thrust to the top to steer the movement ashore from the high seas’ troubled waters.

Much as they disagree on some points, the duo moreover differ on procedure of declaring Machar no longer leader and how his replacement be chosen to step in the vacuum.

Constitution

Compared to any other pseudo legal entities, SPLM/A-IO has the constitution which is being violated or followed in this raging power struggle.

Under normal circumstances, any organization’s constitution has a secession clause stipulating who to step in if the leader dies, resigns or is physically incapacitated.

Mostly it is the person deputizing the departed leader to step in the vacancy in the movement’s highest executive organ, Political Bureau {PB} for that matter.

If the likely successor voluntarily opts out for one reason or another, the next one should step in and so on and so pose up to the last person in secession clause based on the hierarchy in the PB.

From an observer’s point of view, Machar is deputized by Honorable Henry Odwar, now a cabinet Minister of Mining in the government together with his boss, Machar.

The founding Secretary-General Tingo Peter Regbigo Limbo resigned from the movement in Juba, citing unbearable marginalization and lost of vision or be it direction.

In his place was appointed a woman acting Secretary-General by Machar pending convention whose still unknown date is already over taken by irreversible turning points.

Below the acting SG are other members of PB segmented into three categories: those who already left the movement announced or unannounced, some currently with Machar and the rest still hanging out with General Gatwech in the bush.

For clarity, Honorable Duer is the respected member of Liberation Council and widely alleged to have been sacked years back for disloyalty by Machar and furthermore not a member of Political Bureau.

In the constitution of IO he doesn’t stand a chance of leading the movement on interim basis unless all bonafide members of PB are with Machar in Juba and only if all remaining members of LC in the bush by consensus or election decide to step aside in his honor.

Having said and under the aforementioned circumstances, Honorable Duer can only ascend currently to the position of SPLM/A-IO’s Chairman and C-In-C either through bloody or bloodless coup de tat in an apparent contravention to legal succession process.

Coming to General Simon Gatwech. In military wing of the movement he is the Head of the military high command structure.

Machar is his boss as Commander-In-Chief and not as the Chairman. In normal succession, he could remain Chief of General Staff and the person legal succession line favors in PB should ascend to the position of Chairman and Commander-In-Chief.

Generals surrounding Gatwech being warry of scheming politicians with an alleged poor delivery and Gatwech himself being well aware of disorganization besetting the political wing and the need for all IO’s members and allied groups to come together from all walks of life and debate a beleaguered future following possible Machar’s exit, he may be offering himself before IO’s military High Command in Magenis for a position of an Interim Chairman and C-In-C until the political wing and its affiliates sort themselves out and elect a new leader.

This stand by General Gatwech was made known in a press statement released by military Spokesman Brigadier General William Gatjiath Deng, rubbishing Duer’s decision of self-declaration as that of one man.

He continued in saying the military command will soon come up with what it thinks is the right course of action, a position seemingly resonating well with majority of IO’s members from the closer look of events as they unfold, which Duer and group object and accuse General Gatwech of bias among other derogatory terms.

If in case Gatwech declares himself without properly consulting colleagues in the command, then he will suffer the same fate of a coup maker with which Duer is now grappling.

However, by only consulting the military if he does and not ruminant members of both PB and LC around him, will General Gatwech be accused of imposing himself on the movement like Duer has done?

Military’s officer forcefully and temporarily taking over from an elected civilian leader in order to right the wrongs following a chaotic experience is mostly forgiven and given a benefit of doubt till he/she proves otherwise. And General Gatwech won’t be an exception.

Under normal circumstances Machar can only be ousted by convening similar electoral college that previously elected him in Nasir in 2014.

His removal by either Duer or Gatwech couldn’t be legal, but an extra-judicial given the guerrila – etablishment wider divide.

Though, Machar can still be removed for three convincing reasons outside SPLM/A-IO’s constitutional jurisdiction, if the period for which he was elected to serve has elapsed.

Or if there is proven evident he indeed violates the constitution in whichever means.

His crossing over to enemy’s side as he has done so far without green light from IO’s legal leadership structures can give his enemies {General Gatwech and Honorable Duer} the pancea to kick him out of the leadership on pressed treasury charges.

The writing is an author and political analyst. Reach him via: dvanang@gmail.com.

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