BULACAN — The Philippines is projected to remain the world’s top rice importer by 2026, and Filipino farmers are not happy about it.   

According to the latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), Philippine rice imports are expected to hit a record-high 5.5 million metric tons (MT) in 2026. This marks the fourth consecutive year that the country will top the global rice import rankings.

The projected import volume for 2026 surpasses the estimated 5.4 million MT in 2025 and significantly exceeds the all-time high of 4.8 million MT recorded in 2024, a 12.5 percent increase in just two years.

The USDA estimates that by 2026, the Philippines’ rice demand will reach 17.7 million MT. However, local production is projected to fall short at just 12.3 million MT, lower than the record-high 12.62 million MT recorded in 2023.

The Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) said local farmers bear the brunt of rice importation. 

The KMP said that while the government and the Department of Agriculture (DA) insist they are ‘optimistic’ about production, the data itself shows that the rice liberalization policy is a failure. 

“Despite a slight increase in local yield, it is still vastly overshadowed by massive importation. This is the result of the unrestrained opening of the market to imported rice in the name of neoliberal policies,” Danilo Ramos, KMP chairperson, said.

The DA has expressed that it is “very optimistic” about hitting its palay (milled rice) output target of 20.46 million MT this year, citing various interventions to boost production.

Despite interventions from the DA such as double cropping and irrigation rehabilitation, natural calamities and structural challenges continue to hinder rice production. According to the KMP, these measures are insufficient to meet the growing demands of the population.

“In this situation, power over rice supply and pricing is deliberately handed over to importers and rice traders. This is anti-farmer and anti-people. Food security should be built on our own capabilities, not on foreign supply,” Ramos added.

As of now, a total of 1.32 million MT of imported rice have entered the country from January to April, with Vietnam, the leading source of imported rice, accounting for 84.8 percent of the total imports.

According to the KMP, local rice farmers are the most affected by this import dependence as they continue to face low farmgate prices for palay, high production costs, and a lack of subsidies and government support.

According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the country’s palay output in the first quarter of 2025 reached 4.69 million MT, virtually unchanged from the 4.68 million MT recorded during the same period last year.

Despite the government’s full-year target of 20.46 million MT of palay production, equivalent to 12.89 million MT of milled rice, the Philippines will still need to import an estimated 3.5 million MT to meet total domestic demand.

The KMP has long opposed the Rice Liberalization Law (RA 11203), which they say is the root cause of the unrestrained rice importation since its implementation in 2019.

“Since RA 11203 was enacted, the volume of imported rice has increased every year. This trend has continued under the Marcos Jr. administration, and instead of repealing the law, it has been further reinforced. While they boast about their palay production targets, they shift the burden of supply shortfalls to importers,” said Ramos.

Also called the Rice Tariffication Law, RA 11203 was enacted in February 2019 under President Duterte, removing import limits on rice and replacing them with tariffs to liberalize rice trade. It has been criticized for harming local farmers and increasing the country’s reliance on imports.

Read: As prices increase, farmers demand repeal of Rice Liberalization Law

Ramos added, “Self-sufficiency targets are meaningless if the government’s actual practices are anti-farmer. We need free land distribution, subsidies for fertilizers and equipment, support for irrigation, and protection from the low-priced imported and smuggled products.”

The KMP reiterated its call for the repeal of RA 11203 and the abolition of import liberalization policies in agriculture. The group urged the implementation of genuine land reform and programs to strengthen local rice and food production. (RTS, RVO)