60 simulated changes per agent, seed 7, through the same ledger rules as the real system. Both agents are right about 85% to 93% of the time. One states confidence that matches, the other states more than it earns.
calibrated agent
States 0.9, is kept 0.93 of the time. Highest level reached: hands_off. Demotions: 11.
overconfident agent
States 0.97, is kept 0.85 of the time. Highest level reached: hands_off. Demotions: 26.