feature

hands_off granted hands_off, cap hands_off, evidence supports hands_off

At its ceiling.

Changes17 succeeded, 1 failed
Reliability lower bound (5%)0.774
Settled predictions36
Hit rate0.97 (90% interval 0.88 to 0.99)
Brier score0.053 (n = 36)
Overconfidence, last 30-0.133
Level over changesn = 18change numberlevelassistedsupervisedhands_offReliability lower bound over changesn = 18change numberlower bound (5%)0.000.250.500.751.00Stated confidence vs hit raten = 36stated confidence (bins)observed hit rate0.000.250.500.751.000.5-0.60.6-0.70.7-0.8n=50.8-0.9n=210.9-1.0n=10

Changes and events

WhenChangeEventOutcomeLevelNote
2026-10-25 14:58promotionsupervised to hands_off!39 merged by owner @sahil-makandar (approval unavailable for authors)
2026-10-23 08:30!46changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 08:22!45changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 08:13!44changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 08:03!43changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 07:16!36changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 06:58!31changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-23 04:07!34changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 18:04!33changefailurehands_off to supervised
2026-10-22 18:04!33demotionhands_off to supervisedfailure on !33
2026-10-22 17:45promotionsupervised to hands_off!29 merged by owner @sahil-makandar (approval unavailable for authors)
2026-10-22 15:45!30changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 15:22!28changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 15:06!27changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 14:47!26changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 14:31!25changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-22 14:10!24changesuccesssupervised to supervised
2026-10-21 11:24promotionassisted to supervised!20 merged by owner @sahil-makandar (approval unavailable for authors)
2026-10-20 13:27!19changesuccessassisted to assisted
2026-10-20 12:54!18changesuccessassisted to assisted
2026-10-20 12:28!17changesuccessassisted to assisted
2026-10-20 06:06!16changesuccessassisted to assisted
2026-10-20 05:42restrictionassisted to assistedkill switch: manual kill switch from CI