Farmers in Plateau are expressing deep concern over the lack of rainfall, fearing it could lead to significant food scarcity this year and in 2025. Despite daily cloud formations signalling potential downpours, residents have seen almost no rain for over two weeks. The prolonged dry spell has caused widespread panic and uncertainty about what to expect in the coming weeks and months.

In Jos, the state capital, the image of a woman and her son in Kwang diligently watering their maize farm caught the eye. The crops had already begun to lose their natural, healthy colour—an alarming sign of insufficient rain.

Untarred roads have become dry and dusty, an unusual situation in August, a month typically known for heavy rainfall in Plateau. These troubling signs have raised alarms among farmers and citizens hoping for a bumper harvest this year.

Zara Ayuba, a farmer with fields in Damshin, a village in Shendam, and Munok in Kanke, is typically worried.

“I’ve been panicking. The rain doesn’t want to fall,” Ms Ayuba tells Peoples Gazette. “I’ve just been doing my silent prayers.”

She laments the beans she planted in her village are not growing well due to the lack of rainfall.

“It’s just sad,” Ms Ayuba says.

“I lost all 5,000 seedlings of strawberries. Ten thousand seedlings of sweet potatoes. All because I had waited for the heavy rains to reduce. The week I transplanted was the last rain,” Susan Nnji, a female farmer based in Abuja, who runs an agro firm in Jos, tells The Gazette.

Petlong Agyo, a farmer in Shendam, echoes similar concerns. He says this year’s harvest could be severely impacted without enough rainfall.

“Many people farmed this year, and it’s worrying to witness this. It is unusual,” he sighs.

Mr Agyo adds that many farmers are financially strained and have resorted to trading fertilizer for bags of rice after the harvest.

“Farmers are looking for those who can provide fertilizer. If you give them one bag of fertilizer, they will give you two bags of rice when they harvest,” says Mr Agyo. “It’s not only the lack of rain that is the problem; farmers don’t have money this period.”

Joyce Didel discloses how the drought has affected her farm.

“The lack of rain has really caused a big setback because we cannot apply fertilizer. The crops are dying and have dried up. We are waiting for rain,” Ms Didel explains to The Gazette.

When asked about the crops she grows and which are most affected, she responds, “Rice, maize, yam, tomatoes, Irish potatoes. The rice is the worst hit because the area isn’t swampy. The maize is doing pretty well, but we are praying for rain so that we can have a better yield.”

Zainab Maigari, a first-time subsistence pepper farmer, recounts how the lack of rain has impacted her farm, leaving her pepper plants dried up.

“I planted about 20 seedlings of pepper. I don’t have much experience, so I applied fertilizer, but there was no rain. Everything just dried up,” says Ms Maigari.

Ms Maigari says she has learnt her lessons.

“If I don’t see rain next time, I won’t apply fertilizer, or I’ll use manure, like chicken dung,” the farmer points out.

Gyena Iliya, the founder and CEO of Farmer 1st, a Jos-based agro-value chain firm, attributes the weather dilemma to climate change.

According to Mr Iliya, several farmers are already experiencing significant losses.

“Farmers are experiencing about 30 per cent in losses on their investments,” Mr Iliya points out. “Those most affected are rice farmers because rice requires a heavy amount of water compared to maize and other crops.”

Mr Iliya warns this could lead to food scarcity as the expected quantity of food for the year could drop if the situation persists.

He also mentions that some farmers might resort to hoarding their produce.

“It has discouraged some farmers from selling all their produce. They store some so that when the price of grains or foodstuffs goes up, they can sell and recoup part of their losses,” Mr Iliya states.

Mr Iliya is sceptical about the potential impact of the government’s new import waiver on select food items.

He thinks that the private sector may exploit the situation.

“Someone could go to the Benin Republic, buy products in CFA francs, and cook up documents suggesting they bought them in dollars,” says Mr Iliya. “By the time they bring it to Nigeria to sell or process, they will mark up the price. They just want to maximize profit, so there won’t be a significant reduction in food prices.”

Fear of food scarcity

As uncertainty looms due to the lack of rainfall, there are growing fears of food scarcity and increased theft.

Mr Iliya shares the experience of one of his clients, whose maize farm in Heipang, Plateau, suffered a 35 per cent loss due to the current weather conditions.

“They’ve been farming in Heipang for the past five years. One of them is an agronomist, and they’ve been in the business for over five years. But this year, the lack of rain has caused serious issues,” Mr Iliya notes.

“When they surveyed their farm, they had already lost about 35 per cent of their ten million naira investment, which is roughly N3.5 million. Now they’re considering how to store some of the grains and sell them later,” Mr Iliya adds.

Mr Iliya shares a picture of a farmer in Kano who risks losing millions of naira of his investments if the drought continues.

“He’s working on a PPP project with an international agricultural donor organisation. The one advantage he has is insurance, but it will only cover 80 per cent,” he asserts.

While waiting for the rain, Ms Didel knows that “if this condition persists, there will be food scarcity because the rain didn’t fall early, and then it just rained for a while and stopped.”

Ms Didel points out that “those who didn’t start early, their crops are still tender.”

The farmer notes it is her first time experiencing uncertain weather in Plateau.

Juli Damina thinks that although the weather is rare, it has happened in the past and affected Bokkos, her hometown.

“There was something like this some years back in Bokkos LGA. They planted their Irish potatoes after the rains and applied fertilizer. Some people used chicken dung, and after a while, there was no rain, and everything spoiled,” says Ms Damina.

Ms Damina adds that the plants “got rotten, and they couldn’t harvest anything because they applied the fertilizers, but the rains didn’t come, and the heat destroyed the potatoes.”

“There was no bumper harvest that year,” Ms Damina says. “It has happened again in Bokkos this year. They just used the spoiled Irish potatoes to cover their maize.”

She acknowledges that while the condition is rare, this year’s situation is like no other.

Ms Damina is not oblivious to the potential consequences for harvest and the economy, especially with reports of thefts on farmlands.

“Yes, it will make it worse because our youths have gone into tin mining, and they’re not ready to farm. It’s affecting the farmers because some need labour, and they’re not getting it,” Ms Damina says. “The youths are not interested in farming, and with the little that we have, people are stealing it.”

She advised farmers to harvest in groups so they could collect everything at once, leaving nothing behind to be stolen.

Alternatives to rain

This year’s experience has prompted farmers to seek alternatives to relying solely on natural rainfall, preparing them for future drought. Caught between the rain clouds and crusty soil, Nigerian farmers in Plateau have continued to look for inventive ways to beat drought and inadequate rainfall to reap bumper harvests and sustain lives and livelihoods. They are not ready to resign to fate.

Ms Didel has an idea.

She explains how she plans to tackle the issue if it persists and advises other farmers on mitigating losses caused by drought.

“According to NiMet, they said the rains may come on the 18th. If it doesn’t come, we’ll have to irrigate using water from our wells,” Ms Didel states. “If there’s any way they can irrigate, they should try so that we don’t lose everything. A lot has gone into this, so it wouldn’t be wise to lose it all.”

Samson Jibira urges farmers to be prepared to farm whether it rains.

“People should be ready to farm whether the rain comes or not,” Mr Jibira says.

He advises farmers to “prepare for it as well.”

“They need to find a way of getting water so they can use it in times of drought,” Mr Jibira points out.

Mr Jibira adds, “I’ve heard that the rain will come later and last longer, possibly until November. But that could also have adverse effects on the farm, so farmers need to work on their timing.”

Lydia Danbauchi, also a farmer, looks in the direction of the government for solutions.

Ms Danbauchi urged the government to properly sensitise farmers ahead of time to prepare them for challenges like these.

She blames the government for not providing adequate and advanced sensitisation to farmers.

“The awareness they’re doing now concerning the drought—if there had been early circulars or information notifying people, especially after the early rain this year, people could have been better prepared to farm what they could sustain and harvest within this period and then begin another planting season after the drought,” Ms Danbauchi says.

In February, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency released the 2024 seasonal climate prediction (SCP) warning that “an early end to the season is predicted” for parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Cross River, Ebonyi, Ogun and Lagos.

Ms Didel also suggests the provision of dams to help address drought issues and encourage irrigation farming.

Mr Iliya states that farmers in rural areas with farms close to rivers have started exploring irrigation options to mitigate losses.

However, he notes that this has led to additional costs for farmers.