Nigeria is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world – a painful paradox given our minimal contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our vulnerability is rooted in complex agro-ecological zones, fast-growing populations, extensive coastlines threatened by sea level rise, and still-developing climate governance.

For Nigerians, climate change is no longer abstract: it is worsening health crises, eroding food security, deepening human insecurity, threatening livelihoods, and slowing economic growth. Confronting these challenges and seizing the opportunities of a climate-resilient future are why Nigeria signed on to the Paris Agreement, committing to limit global warming to well below 2°C.

One of the powerful tools at our disposal to meet these commitments is the carbon market – a mechanism established under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to enable voluntary cooperation among countries in achieving their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The finalisation of key aspects of Article 6 at COP29 has clarified the rules of engagement, offering Nigeria a clearer pathway to unlock climate finance and attract investments.

Domestically, the Climate Change Act of 2021 gives us a robust framework to transition toward a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy by integrating climate action into national development plans and laying the foundation for a functional carbon trading ecosystem.

Nigeria’s participation in carbon markets is not optional – it is critical. Carbon markets can provide financial incentives to reduce emissions; accelerate net-zero attainment by encouraging businesses to adopt sustainable technologies and nature-based solutions; catalyse the just energy transition and local development by creating new green jobs, building skills, and generating economic opportunities; and as well, channel carbon finance into the National Climate Change Fund to help deliver on our NDCs.

Ostensibly recognising this, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at COP28 in December 2023 announced the Intergovernmental Committee on Carbon Market Activation (IGCCMA) Plan- comprised largely of Nigerian Ministers. In December 2024, the National Council on Climate Change Secretariat (NCCCS) released the draft Nigeria Carbon Market Activation Policy (NCMAP) and a Manual of Procedures for stakeholder review – critical in guiding the establishment of a high-integrity carbon market in Nigeria.

Despite these promising developments, progress has stalled. Months after the inauguration of the IGCCMA and the release of the draft NCMAP, Nigeria’s carbon market remains inactive, and the policy unratified.

This inertia has consequences. It has slowed progress on sustainable development outcomes that forest-edged and coastal communities eagerly anticipate from carbon projects; dented investor confidence- stalling billions of dollars in potential climate finance; delayed the creation of an estimated 840,000 net jobs by 2060 that a low-carbon economy could bring; left hundreds of MtCO₂e of potential emission reduction projects hanging; and is denying Nigeria an estimated $2.5 billion in carbon market value being eyed by 2030.

This inaction creates the unavoidable perception that Nigerian ministers are not prioritising this transformative opportunity. While the Federal Executive Council may meet weekly, the urgent need to activate the carbon market appears to be consistently left off the agenda.

Yet, the opportunity is immense. Carbon markets are not just a climate finance mechanism – they are a lifeline for climate justice, just energy transition, sustainable development and net-zero attainment.

When Nigerian ministers fully recognise this promise and act decisively, the results will be swift and transformative: the NCMAP will be ratified and operationalised; the Nigerian carbon market will be activated- unlocking Letters of No Objection and Authorisations for projects that have been stalled by the secretariat of the NCCC; a national registry will be established spotlighting our robust pipeline of projects.

The choice before us is stark—two futures for Nigeria. In one future, ministers act now. By 2030, Nigeria will have a thriving carbon market attracting billions in climate investments.

Projects across our forests, farmlands, and coastlines deliver tangible benefits: jobs for young people, new income streams for rural communities, clean energy access for millions, and restored ecosystems that protect us from climate shocks.

Nigeria stands as a continental leader – shaping Africa’s carbon market narrative and commanding respect on the global climate stage. In the other future, we continue to delay. Investors take their capital elsewhere. Promising projects collapse before they start.

Vulnerable communities see no relief as floods, droughts, and desertification worsen. Nigeria becomes a spectator – watching as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa seize the opportunities we let slip through our fingers.

The time for deliberation has passed. Our ministers must act – to ratify the NCMAP, activate the carbon market, and put Nigeria on the path to climate leadership. The world will not wait for us – and neither will history.

Tony is a member of the Special Task Force on Climate Action Agenda and Implementation of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and the Interim Coordinator of the Nigerian Carbon Market Community of Practice.

Itua is Lead of the Special Task Force on Climate Action Agenda and Implementation of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), and the Executive Director of the African Green and Sustainability Institute (AGESI)