Walrus group
Myth: oil will soon run out
Fact: we have already found 4 times more fossil fuels than we can ever safely burn.
A crucial component is missing from the international plan to combat global warming - nature's bottom line. How much warming can our planet tolerate before our weather careers dangerously out of control and ecosystems break down?
UN scientists estimate that if the planet warms faster than just 0.1 degrees C every 10 years, or a total of 1degree C, we're in big trouble. At this point we will have crossed the line beyond which changes in our weather patterns will become rapid, unpredictable and irreversible.
How can we stay within nature's limits?
Oil, coal and gas are the primary cause of global warming. The carbon dioxide emissions from these fuels are building up in the atmosphere creating a greenhouse effect. It is possible to work out a 'budget' of the amount of oil, coal and gas we can use before we exceed nature's limits. And guess what? Known reserves of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas exceed this budget fourfold. That means we cannot burn more than a quarter of these fuel reserves if we are going to avoid run away climate change.
Put another way, three quarters of the oil, coal and gas we've already found must remain locked underground and never be used. Since we can't use what we've got, exploring for new reserves of oil is either criminal or insane.
Oil will not run out; it must be shut down.
If we continue burning fossil fuels at our current rate, the safe limit will be reached in just 40 years. We need to slash carbon dioxide emissions immediately so that they are reduced by 100%. A complete phase out of fossil fuels is needed in the next 40 years. The first step is to stop adding to the stockpile of unusable reserves and end new oil exploration.
