"When it comes to carbon emissions the Davies’ analysis has holes big enough to fly an Airbus through. His claim that a new runway could be compatible with the UK's climate targets is based on the unrealistic assumptions like the need for a 6,600% rise in carbon taxes, rose-tinted estimates about improvements in aircraft efficiency, and false solutions like biofuels.
"This is just a smokescreen to hide the obvious fact that a new runway will almost certainly derail our legally-binding climate targets. In the year the world is coming together to tackle climate change, we should be talking about how to manage demand, not where to store up a new carbon bomb."
ENDS
Key flaws in Davies report's climate argument:
- Massive increase in carbon tax: To make its carbon calculus work, the report assumes a carbon price of £330 per tonne by 2050. Since the EU Emissions Trading Carbon Price is currently £5.3 a tonne, this would mean a 6,600% increase, when any rises above £30/tonne by 2030 are looking to be politically undeliverable because of the pressures they would put on other parts of the economy. And even the World Bank has given up on carbon pricing as the main tool for carbon emissions reductions and says we need performance targets and regulatory standards.
- Rose-tinted estimate on aircraft efficiency: The efficiency improvements required are 1.15% (table 3.8) which is significantly higher than the Climate Change Committee thought likely (see p10). Over 30 years this is a difference in emissions of 6%.
- The biofuel fig leaf: For Heathrow North West Davies uses more biofuels, but even since the CCC looked at biofuels in aviation, this policy has become mired in questions of sustainability and whether they really deliver climate mitigation. The UK's biofuel usage has barely risen in several years.
Contact: Stefano, m 07506 512442
