By TIMOTHY JAMES L. CIPRIANO

Manila Bay has long been central to life in the country’s capital. It is ecologically rich, culturally significant, and a lifeline for coastal communities. But as the recent Habagat flooding triggered by Crising, Dante, and Emong shows, the Bay is becoming increasingly vulnerable not only to natural weather patterns, but to the cascading effects of reclamation, subsidence, and governance failure. Behind bold visions of “development” and “smart, resilient cities” lies an unfortunate truth: Manila Bay is slowly turning into a frontier for profit-driven land reclamation projects. Now, ecosystems are degraded and residents are pushed to the margins. Profit is prioritized over people; but, the waters are pushing back.

Reclamation and the remaking of Manila Bay

Across the coastal zones of Bulacan, Metro Manila, and Cavite, over 25 large-scale reclamation projects aim to convert more than 10,000 hectares of Manila Bay’s waters into artificial land. Fast-tracked through public-private partnerships (PPP), many of these ventures are framed as solutions to Metro Manila’s congestion and climate risks. In reality, they entrench deeper vulnerabilities.

Promoted as “smart,” “green,” and “resilient,” these projects often obscure their environmental toll. At the turn of the 20th century, Manila Bay had over 54,000 hectares of mangroves. By 1990, that shrank to 2,000—and further declined to under 800 hectares by the end of the decade, according to a report published by Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA) in 2004. Meanwhile, data from the Global Mangrove Watch shows nearly 50 percent of mangrove cover was lost between 1996 and 2016. These ecosystems provide vital services such as storm protection, sediment regulation, carbon sequestration. Their loss accelerates erosion, biodiversity collapse, and exposure to coastal hazards.

Adding to this is rapid land subsidence due to groundwater extraction. Geologist Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo notes that some parts of Manila Bay sink by up to 9 centimeters annually. Meanwhile, sea level rise in the bay is occurring at nearly three times the global average, according to National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA). Reclamation alters water flow and sediment dynamics, making the coastline more unstable and disaster-prone.

A fragmented system enabling risk

The recent Habagat-induced floods, enhanced by Crising and Dante, affected over 1.4 million people with some cities and municipalities in Luzon placed under a state of calamity. These are not just isolated weather events, but  warning signs of how climate extremes intersect with flawed land-use decisions.

The Cumulative Impact Assessment (CIA) commissioned  by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources found that reclamation projects in Manila Bay significantly alter hydrological systems and exacerbate flooding. Instead of absorbing excess water, reclaimed areas narrow river mouths, eliminate wetlands, and reroute natural flood pathways into urban spaces. The CIA confirms what many communities already experience: flooding is no longer just seasonal, but a structural one.

The CIA also revealed that most Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) for reclamation projects were done in isolation, failing to account for their cumulative effects on ecosystems. Disrupted water flow, sediment buildup, and marine pollution are now compounding across the bay. Public health risks, including vector-borne diseases from water stagnation, are on the rise.

Perhaps most alarmingly, the report emphasized the increased likelihood of urban flooding in reclaimed areas due to impaired drainage and reduced water retention. Yet, despite these findings, governance remains fragmented. Multiple national agencies and local government units (LGUs) issue permits independently, without an overarching coastal management framework. This very institutional design systematically enables the privatization of commons and the erosion of public accountability.

Development for whom?

Reclamation is not just a neutral engineering feat, but also an act of power. It facilitates the enclosure of communal coastal spaces, drives land speculation, and displaces fisherfolk and long-time residents. With fishing grounds reduced, fishers are forced to travel farther, incurring greater fuel costs and income loss. These show structural outcomes of exclusionary development.

This transformation of Manila Bay into a real estate frontier is a textbook case of development aggression. What’s being erased isn’t just livelihood, but entire ways of life. For coastal communities, Manila Bay is a living space rich with memory, identity, and resistance. From a political ecology perspective, these conflicts reveal deep power struggles over who gets to shape our urban spaces.

Whose Bay? Whose future?

Amid growing threats, resistance is rising. Fisherfolk groups, scientists, environmental defenders, and grassroots organizations are pushing back through countermapping, legal action, storytelling, and protest. They are not just defending ecosystems, but also asserting the right of communities to shape their futures. They call for commons-based governance that centers the voices of those most affected.

To truly reclaim Manila Bay, we must ask: Who defines development? Whose voices matter in shaping our cities? Whose values determine what our future coastline looks like?

The fate of Manila Bay must not be decided in closed-door consultations or technocratic meetings alone. It belongs in open, participatory spaces where fisherfolk, communities, scientists, and educators come together to envision an inclusive, sustainable future. We must lay bare the power imbalances behind land use and environmental policy.

Manila Bay is not just a site of reclamation. It is a battleground of meaning, memory, and survival. In the age of climate crisis and creeping authoritarianism, deciding what kind of space Manila Bay becomes is tantamount to reclaiming our right to shape our own urban future.

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Author’s Bionote:

Timothy James L. Cipriano, an assistant professor of Geography and the current Head of the Center for Transformative Education of the Faculty of Behavioral and Social Sciences at the Philippine Normal University, specializes in political ecology and its intersections with contested land use, environmental change, hazard vulnerability, and resource management in coastal and peri-urban environments. He is also the Head and Chief Researcher of the PNU Geography and GeoSpatial Training and Research Laboratory (GeoSTaR Lab). He earned his Master of Science (MSc) degree in Geography from the Department of Geography, University of the Philippines Diliman. His work investigating various productions of urban spaces and disaster risks in Manila’s peri-urban fringe won the 2023 Loretta Makasiar-Sicat Prize for the Social Sciences given by the Philippine Social Science Council. He is also the resident geographer of AGHAM – Advocates for Science and Technology for the People.

[*The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of his institutional affiliations]