Cop15

This blog by Greenpeace US webbie Mike Gaworecki first appeared yesterday on the Climate Rescue weblog.

Discussions at these climate talks are often in a highly specialized language that some of us like to call 'alphabet soup' – because it is conducted almost entirely in acronyms. One such cup o' soup we’ve been hearing a lot about lately is REDD, which stands for "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation." So I thought I'd give you an as-brief-as-possible update on where the negotiations on REDD are at, and what we're pushing for.

With all the headlines about what the world will be like if we don't get a grip on climate change - how hot it will be by 2050, how high the sea levels will rise, that sort of thing - there's always an element of uncertainty. The top line figures you see in the press are usually only one of a range of figures calculated by climate modelling, producing a range of potential outcomes based on possible changes to our behaviour and the environment.

What's often neglected is a risk assessment: comparing the probability of a particular outcome against the effect it will have. Our perception of risk is very skewed - we'll panic about things like swine flu (which the chances of us dying from a very low) but we'll quite happily drive around in cars where the probability of dying in a road accident are comparatively higher.

"You know," Joss said to me in the other day, "one of the most important meetings of this summit isn't happening in Copenhagen. It's happening in Brussels where the heads of state are getting together."

As one of the political campaigning whizz-kids here in the Greenpeace camp, he knows what he's talking about and rather than me paraphrasing on his behalf, watch Joss's short vlog above to see what he means.

A couple of hours ago, we heard that the plenary session had been suspended. Tuvalu, the Pacific island nation so vulnerable to climate change, demanded a legally-binding agreement - not in six or 12 months, but at the end of the conference next week. It's a demand that should not, and can not, be ignored.

This goes to the heart of one of the most important questions hanging over Copenhagen and yet a group of industrialised countries - the US, Japan, Canada and the EU - stayed completely silent. Nothing. Not a whisper.