Climate Change

In another repost from the Climate Rescue weblog - Jess sums up the political dynamics that are being played out in Copenhagen, and explains why a positive intervention from Barak Obama could still swing the balance in favour of a successful outcome, even at this late stage...

Last week, I posted a wrap up email of the first day of the negotiations that I received from a friend. I remember feeling completely overwhelmed at the idea of trying to summarize that first day and relieved to see someone had already done it in a way that was so easy to understand. I found myself in the same position yesterday when the same friend sent an email with his outline of where things stand at the negotiations. I didn't think it possible but this email gives a short account of the very complicated process so far.

As I write this, we are down to three days here at the Copenhagen climate talks. And I am afraid to say that there is little reason to be encouraged. Everybody has card to put on the table but no one is playing.

Dear Mr President,

Now is the time to give hope more than a voice. As you depart for the UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen, I feel compelled to express my hope and desire for the role you will play when you join the other heads of state in reaching an agreement to avert catastrophic climate change: the role you must play in keeping hope alive for many millions of people around the world. 

My Name is Kumi Naidoo, I am the International Executive Director of Greenpeace, I am also chair the Global Coalition for Climate Action (www.tcktcktck.org) and serve as a co-chair of the Global Call to Action Against Poverty (www.whiteband.org). But, most of all, like you, I am a global citizen. I am also a child of Africa.

With all the headlines about what the world will be like if we don't get a grip on climate change - how hot it will be by 2050, how high the sea levels will rise, that sort of thing - there's always an element of uncertainty. The top line figures you see in the press are usually only one of a range of figures calculated by climate modelling, producing a range of potential outcomes based on possible changes to our behaviour and the environment.

What's often neglected is a risk assessment: comparing the probability of a particular outcome against the effect it will have. Our perception of risk is very skewed - we'll panic about things like swine flu (which the chances of us dying from a very low) but we'll quite happily drive around in cars where the probability of dying in a road accident are comparatively higher.

"You know," Joss said to me in the other day, "one of the most important meetings of this summit isn't happening in Copenhagen. It's happening in Brussels where the heads of state are getting together."

As one of the political campaigning whizz-kids here in the Greenpeace camp, he knows what he's talking about and rather than me paraphrasing on his behalf, watch Joss's short vlog above to see what he means.