copenhagen

With all the headlines about what the world will be like if we don't get a grip on climate change - how hot it will be by 2050, how high the sea levels will rise, that sort of thing - there's always an element of uncertainty. The top line figures you see in the press are usually only one of a range of figures calculated by climate modelling, producing a range of potential outcomes based on possible changes to our behaviour and the environment.

What's often neglected is a risk assessment: comparing the probability of a particular outcome against the effect it will have. Our perception of risk is very skewed - we'll panic about things like swine flu (which the chances of us dying from a very low) but we'll quite happily drive around in cars where the probability of dying in a road accident are comparatively higher.

As part of an estimated 100,000-strong demonstration, Greenpeace campaigners, activists and volunteers marched through Copenhagen on Saturday to the Bella Centre, site of the UN climate summit, demanding a fair, ambitious and legally binding agreement at the COP15 negotiations. This video by Michael Nagasaki captures some of the atmosphere of the event.

"You know," Joss said to me in the other day, "one of the most important meetings of this summit isn't happening in Copenhagen. It's happening in Brussels where the heads of state are getting together."

As one of the political campaigning whizz-kids here in the Greenpeace camp, he knows what he's talking about and rather than me paraphrasing on his behalf, watch Joss's short vlog above to see what he means.

Slightly removed from the organised chaos of the Bella Centre, the Climate Rescue Station is proving to be an oasis of calm and tranquility, a place of relaxation and reflection. Perfect, then, to host a new photographic exhibition to illustrate the impacts of climate change around the world.

A message from the Youth Climate Coalition...

Over the next two weeks, our leaders will negotiate the most important agreement of our time – one that must stop a climate catastrophe.

But they will only aim as high as we demand.

That's why on Saturday December 12th thousands will gather at climate vigils in every corner of the planet to send a clear message: The World Wants a Real Deal!

The Global Day of Action by TckTckTck has over 1000 events already registered across the world, and we want you to be part of the event in London, which is being jointly organised by the Youth Climate Coalition.

Where: Old Palace Yard, Westminster, London

When: Saturday December 12th, 4pm

What: Candlelit vigil followed by a UKYCC Flashdance and maybe a few extra surprises...

A couple of hours ago, we heard that the plenary session had been suspended. Tuvalu, the Pacific island nation so vulnerable to climate change, demanded a legally-binding agreement - not in six or 12 months, but at the end of the conference next week. It's a demand that should not, and can not, be ignored.

This goes to the heart of one of the most important questions hanging over Copenhagen and yet a group of industrialised countries - the US, Japan, Canada and the EU - stayed completely silent. Nothing. Not a whisper.

Sometimes, there is such a beautiful synchronisation of multiple ideas in a single word, I'm tempted to believe that it couldn't possibly have happened by chance. For instance, what pops into your head when you hear the word 'fossil'?

A. The preserved remains of long-dead organisms
B. A polluting fuel hewn from the ground
C. Someone who refuses to adapt and evolve even though everyone else has
D. All of the above

If you answered D, you're clearly on the same wavelength as the team handing out Fossil Of The Day awards here in Copenhagen. Handed out each evening, they go to the country which has done most to stall, frustrate or otherwise get in the way of a fair, ambitious and legally-binding agreement during the last 24 hours.

John Bowler is the Project Manager for our Countdown to Copenhagen work and will be updating on what is going on in and around the Bella Center in Copenhagen over the next two weeks. In this repost from the climate rescue weblog John shares his thoughts on the opening day's events at the conference.

"There ain't no power like the power of the people 'cause the power of the people don't stop" will undoubtedly be my memory of the opening of the Climate Summit in Copenhagen this morning. This chant, or more precisely rap, was pounded out by the Solar Generation drummers and rappers. Their performance captivated all who entered the negotiations via the 'metro' gate. Almost as captivating was the free hot coffee given out by Greenpeace activists beside a 16m2 video screen which beamed the "save the climate" message with stories of climate voices from around the world to the 1,000s who joined the queue to gain access to the meeting.

Another day has dawned cold and gray here in Copenhagen, but there are plenty of reasons for excitement and optimism. Now that President Obama' has agreed to attend the conference, all the elements are now in place for world leaders to move forward and agree a legally binding treaty to stop climate chaos.

Greenpeace has a sizeable delegation on the ground here, representing the millions of activists worldwide who are calling for a deal that will do what the science says we must do to avert an utter climate catastrophe. I’m lucky enough to be part of the web team that will be updating you on what's happening both inside and outside the UN climate summit.