Sir David King
According to the government's chief scientist, Sir David King, while the evidence continues to grow, what we really need to see is action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
"Action is affordable, inaction is certainly not," said Sir David at the Greenpeace Business lecture on global warming in London.
As scientists around the world study the changes in our climate going back almost a million years, they confirm what many of us know, climate change is already here.
Recent research reveals an unprecedented rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the past two years. The research project conducted by Charles Keeling from Hawaii has been running for almost 50 years and in recent decades recorded an average increase of carbon dioxide levels by 1.5 parts per million because of the increase of emissions from oil, coal and gas. But over the past two years, the increase jumped to more than two parts per million of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
Sir David says this data "is now regarded as the most accurate data and even amongst the climate change sceptics, you won't find anyone who questions this particular data."
However, he cautioned that we need to wait another five or ten years to see whether the increase is a continuing trend or related to other phenomenon such as an El Nino event. But can we afford to wait that long?
Extreme weather events such as the flooding in the UK and Europe and the heat wave of last year are already occurring with current levels of carbon dioxide. "We are seeing extreme events which are attributable to global warming, at least in part, and these are having quite devastating effects," said Sir David. Climate change is here and because of the high levels of carbon dioxide already in our atmosphere, "the climate change effects are with us for the next 30 or 40 years whatever we do," said Sir David.
"Even if we stopped emitting now, we've effectively committed ourselves to a further period of global warming. It's the longer-term effects that we will have a positive effect on by reducing our emissions," said Sir David. "That means that we really have to adapt to the changes that lie ahead for us over the coming period, but at the same time we ought to mitigate against further damages in the longer term, for the sake of our grandchildren, so that we reduce the longer term problems."
Sir David says climate change is a global problem that needs a global solution. "Kyoto is not enough, Kyoto is a beginning and it's a good process," he said. "And what will be needed is once we've got the process up and running, it will need to be ratcheted up so that we can really bring emissions under control."
The UK government is committed to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60% by around 2050 and Tony Blair has announced that during his period in the Presidency of the G8, he will be concentrating on climate change and Africa.
Sir David says he considers climate change "to be the most serious issue facing us this century and beyond," but ultimately he is an optimist and believes we will develop the solution because of the seriousness and magnitude of the problem. "We all have a responsibility and a role to play in this, from governments through to industry and individual citizens. The good news is that we now understand what is happening and therefore what we must do to address this - global action to reduce carbon emissions is the key."
Read the full transcript of Sir David King's lecture
More about the science of climate change
